Republican Standings

We’re starting a new feature – the Republican Standings.

You can see them on the right-hand side of the main blog page, under Republican Standings, here.

This is a ranking of (possible) Republican candidates. The percentages indicate the chance that we think that candidate has of becoming the Republican nominee.

The ordinals and percentages are determined by a secret, 270soft formula.

If you think there is important information we’re not considering, which will change the rankings or percentages, feedback is welcome!

129 Responses to Republican Standings

  1. 270admin January 26, 2011 at 8:03 pm #

    Added Michele Bachmann to standings at 1%.

  2. 270admin January 26, 2011 at 8:37 pm #

    Added Newt Gingrich, Haley Barbour, and John Thune, at 3%, 3%, and 1% respectively.

  3. 270admin January 29, 2011 at 3:44 am #

    Added Rick Santorum at 1% as he has recently hired two Iowa strategists, as reported in Politico here.

  4. 270admin January 29, 2011 at 3:47 am #

    Moved Mitt Romney 30% -> 27%, due to signs he might be weak in Iowa and South Carolina, from Politico here and National Journal here (Iowa and South Carolina are currently first and third in the Republican primary schedule).

  5. Chad January 31, 2011 at 2:08 pm #

    Shouldn’t Huckabee be higher? All the PPP polls that have been released show him taking most states and is in a statistical tie with Romney.

  6. 270admin January 31, 2011 at 7:37 pm #

    @Chad, Huckabee has entered 2011 with very poor fundraising (see here), and has recently talked about what he has to lose by entering a 2012 race IIRC. Both suggest he is in a soft spot, and may be reluctant to try again this cycle. Hence the rating lower than Romney.

  7. 270admin February 1, 2011 at 1:31 am #

    Due to recent Washington straw poll, have modified Romney 27->26, Daniels 14->15, Thune 1->2.

  8. Bryan S February 2, 2011 at 4:20 pm #

    I don’t know where to ask this so I will give it a shot here. Is President forever 2012 going to have the same look as Congress forever? I have to admit, Congress looks much more modern then 2008. Thanks…

  9. 270admin February 2, 2011 at 9:00 pm #

    @Bryan, yes, President Forever 2012 will have a similar look to Congress Forever 2010.

  10. Mike February 5, 2011 at 4:31 pm #

    Will there be Foot soldiers in the 2012? will you be able to do the same things as in 2008?

  11. 270admin February 7, 2011 at 6:07 pm #

    @Mike, you should be able to do most of the things as in 2008. Currently, there are Ground Ops, which work a little differently than FS in 2008. We’ll see as development progresses.

  12. POLLWONK February 14, 2011 at 7:40 am #

    Romney: 25%
    Huckabee: 18%
    Pawlenty: 15%
    Daniels: 15%
    Palin:11%
    Barbour: 8%
    Thune: 3%
    Bachmann 3%
    Pataki: 2%

  13. 270admin February 22, 2011 at 6:02 pm #

    A few changes:

    Daniels 15%->12%, due to his unions comment.
    Huntsman 3%->5%, due to general increasing knowledge about his abilities.
    Thune 2%->0%, due to his announcement he would stay in the Senate.

  14. POLLWONK March 1, 2011 at 1:41 pm #

    What about Rudy Giuliani? I think he’s got a good shot because…

    1.) He’s a moderate. He is popular among independents and GOP foreign policy wonks. He could attract independents like McCain’s 2000 Bid and win over some more fisical conservative voters with his tax break policy he instituted while Mayor.
    2.) He has shown the ability to attract Democrats. He won as a Republican in a city that is a Democrat Heaven. And he came away as arguably America’s most beloved mayor.
    3.) He has said he won’t be repeating his strategy of focusing on Florida primarily. He is going to be aiming at some of the earlier primary states this time.
    4.) He is a very likable candidate. He has charisma and humor which makes him such an inspiring character

    i’d give him a 9%-13%

  15. 270admin March 2, 2011 at 5:08 pm #

    If Giuliani makes more noises about seriously considering a bid, he might be added.

  16. Dave March 5, 2011 at 3:05 pm #

    I think that Buddy Roemer’s name is misspelled on the candidate list. It’s listed as “Roehmer” … but it is actually “Roemer.”

    Also, please check out my blog about the 2012 election, “The Beauregard Report”:

    roadtothewhitehouse.wordpress.com

  17. Dave March 5, 2011 at 5:43 pm #

    There is now a new url for my blog:

    thebeauregardreport.wordpress.com

    Best,
    Dave

  18. 270admin March 7, 2011 at 1:25 pm #

    Roemer’s name fixed – thanks!

  19. 270admin March 7, 2011 at 4:36 pm #

    Huckabee 12%->11% due to gaffes.
    Pawlenty 16%->17% due to Quinnipiac survey indicating that he currently has the most favorable rating of all likely Republican candidates (except for Gov. Chris Christie, who has repeatedy said that he isn’t running).

  20. POLLWONK March 9, 2011 at 2:54 pm #

    Why is Gingrich a 5%?

  21. 270admin March 11, 2011 at 1:38 pm #

    He’s at 4% due to strong polling in Iowa, and initial fundraising.

  22. POLLWONK March 31, 2011 at 10:53 am #

    I have a few questions…

    Why is Mitch Daniels at a 12%?
    Why is Michele Bachmann at a 2%?
    Why is Rick Santorum at 1%?
    Why is Newt Gingrich polling so low?

  23. POLLWONK April 23, 2011 at 8:47 am #

    @270 Admin,

    Why isn’t Donald Trump included? I would probably put him at a 10%

  24. anthony_270admin April 26, 2011 at 5:38 pm #

    @PW, Paul and Trump added, both at 1%.

  25. POLLWONK April 27, 2011 at 9:48 am #

    I think Ron Paul should be boosted as well as Trump. Ron Paul is the hero of the Tea-Party. I’d say he’d be somewhere around 7-9%. Trump 8-10%

  26. Dave from Massachusetts April 27, 2011 at 11:54 am #

    It’s also important to look at the state-by-state numbers. They will be very different.

    During the duration of the game, the poll numbers in states that will hold primaries outside of the early state window are inconsequential until the early state contests have been decided. For instance, if you are playing as John McCain or Mitt Romney in the 2008 game, Giuliani’s early lead in Oklahoma means nothing until you hit 2/5 and either McCain or Romney are running away with the entire country and demolishing the competition in Oklahoma (which is an accurate outcome after sweeping early states).

    At this point, it can be assumed that Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, and Tim Pawlenty will be the most competitive in Iowa throughout the campaign. Romney should probably start off with about 10% in Iowa because of the fact that he hasn’t visited the state for a while. I’d give him the 10% solely because of the fact that he still has somewhat of a leftover organization there from his 2008 race. It can also be assumed at this point that Mitt Romney will be the runaway favorite in New Hampshire (35-40%), with Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty waiting backstage for their moment to shine (10-15%). Romney will also be the frontrunner in Nevada (45-50%), with Ron Paul in second place (10-15%). In a place like Nevada, there has not been too much 2012 candidate activity there, so it might not be a bad idea to stick with the 2008 results (Romney first, Paul second). South Carolina will be very similar to Iowa, but I think that Huckabee and Newt Gingrich should probably be out front, with Bachmann not too far behind. South Carolina should be another place where Romney starts off with +/- 10%. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee will probably be competitive in Florida early on (Romney at 25-30%, Huckabee at 20-25%).

    In the remaining states, it’s clear that Romney will be the early favorite in big states like California, Illinois, Michigan, and New York. His money, organization, and relatively moderate record as Governor of Massachusetts will do him well in these states. Romney should also start off as the significant favorite in the New England states, as well as states like Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and D.C. He should start off with 80-90% in Utah. He should also be the favorite in the West in general (Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming). The reason: his past strength in the West, as well as his devout Mormon faith. Huntsman will have to prove himself and work hard for votes in the West. He is probably Romney’s biggest threat in that region, but he will have to work for his support as many people will naturally gravitate to Romney early. Romney will also be competitive in states like Hawaii, Oregon, Washington. Huckabee and Romney should be competitive in battleground states like Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    With Romney’s strong points out of the way, I want to take a look at Huckabee’s strong point: the South. Huckabee should definitely be the early favorite in every Southern state, including Oklahoma and Texas (he did do very well in Kansas in 2008, but Romney had dropped out of the race right before the Kansas primary, where he probably would’ve done very well). Yes, my suggestions are setting this game up to be a Huckabee v. Romney “two-man” contest, but at this early stage this race is exactly that (unless you want to include Trump). Daniels will be strong in Indiana if he runs, Gingrich will be strong in Georgia, and Pawlenty will be strong in Minnesota, but they will have to prove themselves everywhere else.

  27. Dave from Massachusetts April 27, 2011 at 12:12 pm #

    What are you considering doing with regards to endorsers? Idea: Newspapers, the usual organizations, the two national committees, as well as the governors. However, it might be cool to add the Senators as well as the leaders of the Senate / Congress. Mitch McConnell and others have indicated that they will endorse a candidate in the primaries.

    Any idea when the game will be released?

  28. Elliot April 28, 2011 at 8:33 pm #

    1. Gov. Mitt Romney 25%
    2. Gov. Mike Huckabee 25%
    3. Gov. Mitch Daniels 17%
    4. Gov. Sarah Palin 10%
    5. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 6%
    6. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 4%
    7. Speaker Newt Gingrich 4%
    8. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    9. Mr. Donald Trump 3%
    10. Rep. Michele Bachmann 2%
    11. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

    Gov. Mike Huckabee- Huckabee has a huge lead in the South. Huckabee will enter the race late. Take Huckabee very seriously.

    Gov. Tim Pawlenty- I know that the Washington Establishment takes Pawlenty seriously, but try to name a single significant accomplishment that he did as governor.

    Mr. Donald Trump – Bad business deals and the birther issue made he look like a moron.

    Rep. Ron Paul- Although popular with the Tea Partiers, the fiscal conservatives will probably flock to Romney or Daniels and the social conservatives will probably back Huckabee.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/02/poll-huckabee-leads-in-the-south/

  29. Dave from Massachusetts April 28, 2011 at 9:04 pm #

    I think that Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin should be included on the list of “Off” candidates. Since delivering the Republican response to the president’s State of the Union address earlier this year, as well as releasing his version of a 2012 budget, he has been getting a great deal of speculation in the media as well as among conservative activists. He has said that he does not intend to run and that his current position in the House is enough of a “bully pulpit” to speak from. However, a Ryan for President race would quickly gain steam. It’s unlikely but possible. He’s more of a serious 2012 presidential candidate than Marco Rubio, for instance. Ryan may already be included in the game, but in case he isn’t, I wanted to make a well-founded case for his inclusion.

  30. Dave from Massachusetts April 28, 2011 at 9:06 pm #

    At this point, Trump is polling in and around 17% in the national polls (he’s tied with Huckabee, and is 1% ahead of Romney). Just some food for thought. Giving him 3% is unrealistic.

  31. Elliot April 28, 2011 at 9:17 pm #

    @Dave

    “At this point, Trump is polling in and around 17% in the national polls (he’s tied with Huckabee, and is 1% ahead of Romney). Just some food for thought. Giving him 3% is unrealistic.”

    Republican primary polls at this time are mostly based on name recognition. Trump has to deal with bad business deals, flip flops, and party identification.

  32. Dave from Massachusetts April 28, 2011 at 9:36 pm #

    @Elliot

    This is true. However, I don’t think that Trump will dip to 1-3%. Ever. He’s too bombastic and has a following that consists of at least 8-10% that he will keep for a long, long time.

  33. Elliot April 28, 2011 at 9:42 pm #

    @Dave

    anthony_270admin: “This is a ranking of (possible) Republican candidates. The percentages indicate the chance that we think that candidate has of becoming the Republican nominee.”

    Trump or Paul definitely does not have an 8-10% chance a the nomination.

  34. anthony_270admin April 29, 2011 at 9:05 pm #

    Dave: “I think that Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin should be included on the list of “Off” candidates.”

    Thanks, added to the possible list.

  35. anthony_270admin April 29, 2011 at 9:25 pm #

    PW: “I think Ron Paul should be boosted as well as Trump. Ron Paul is the hero of the Tea-Party. I’d say he’d be somewhere around 7-9%. Trump 8-10%”

    I think RP’s support is deep, but narrow. Until he shows evidence he can move outside of the libertarian niche he occupied last election, I’m keeping him at 1%. For Trump, I’m waiting to see if it’s a ‘bubble’ that will soon deflate.

  36. anthony_270admin April 29, 2011 at 9:29 pm #

    Dave: “Any idea when the game will be released?”

    No, right now I’m focusing on the Canada game. Then the Australian game will be released. Development on both of these games contributes directly to development on P4E12. Then a minimal beta P4E12.

  37. Elliot April 30, 2011 at 7:56 am #

    @anthony_270admin

    1. Gov. Mitt Romney 25%
    2. Gov. Mike Huckabee 25%
    3. Gov. Mitch Daniels 17%
    4. Gov. Sarah Palin 9%
    5. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 6%
    6. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 4%
    7. Speaker Newt Gingrich 4%
    8. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    9. Mr. Donald Trump 3%
    10. Rep. Michele Bachmann 2%
    11. Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    12. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

    Why isn’t Gov. Gary Johnson added?

  38. anthony_270admin April 30, 2011 at 5:26 pm #

    Good point – Gary Johnson added at 1%!

  39. anthony_270admin April 30, 2011 at 5:33 pm #

    Raised Huntsman 1% and decreased Palin 1%.

  40. anthony_270admin May 6, 2011 at 4:08 pm #

    Increased RP 1% -> 2% due to recent fundraising and poll numbers.

  41. anthony_270admin May 8, 2011 at 4:06 pm #

    Mitch Daniels 12%->14%, Jon Hunstman 6%->8%, as it looks more likely that they will officially join the race.

  42. Elliot May 9, 2011 at 8:34 am #

    @anthony_270admin

    Tim Pawlenty in all the polls I have seen comes in single digits in both statewide and national polls. Why is he so high while Mike Huckebee lead/ties in national polls and has leads in many of the states?

  43. anthony_270admin May 9, 2011 at 5:37 pm #

    First, the rankings aren’t just based on polling numbers, although they inform the numbers.

    For Huckabee, the big question I have is: is he going to run? I would put this at a greater chance of happening now than a couple months ago.

    If he does run, then that number will most likely increase.

    Pawlenty, on the other hand, has officially formed an exploratory committee.

  44. Elliot May 9, 2011 at 6:01 pm #

    @anthony_270admin

    “First, the rankings aren’t just based on polling numbers, although they inform the numbers.

    For Huckabee, the big question I have is: is he going to run? I would put this at a greater chance of happening now than a couple months ago.

    If he does run, then that number will most likely increase.

    Pawlenty, on the other hand, has officially formed an exploratory committee.”

    Pawlenty is viewed as a lot stronger candidate by the media. What is Pawlenty known for? What does he stand for? I think 17% chance is too high for someone who hasn’t run before and defined themselves as a candidate.

  45. POLLWONK May 11, 2011 at 2:39 pm #

    I think Herman Cain deserves to be at least at 1%…

    http://zogby.com/news/2011/05/10/ibope-zogby-poll-cain-now-second-christie-top-choice-gop-primary-voters-/

  46. Elliot May 12, 2011 at 9:13 am #

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/07/huntsman-impresses-gop-heavyweights-in-key-early-primary-state/

    “From my conversations with a few others in attendance and glances around the room, his remarks were well-received,” another Republican source told CNN. “One person who had never met him before remarked, ‘I liked him better than anyone I’ve seen.'”

    “The consensus was, ‘Holy crap this guy looks like a president,'” said one person who was there. “I have never seen anybody sweep into this state so quickly so fast and get as much accomplished in 48 hours as Huntsman has done.”

  47. Elliot May 14, 2011 at 10:03 pm #

    1. Gov. Mitt Romney 31%
    2. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 25%
    3. Gov. Mitch Daniels 17%
    4. Gov. Sarah Palin 10%
    5. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 4%
    6. Speaker Newt Gingrich 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8. Mr. Donald Trump 3%
    9. Rep. Michele Bachmann 2%
    10. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/54517.html

    Huckabee might back Huntsman.

  48. Elliot May 14, 2011 at 10:04 pm #

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-presidential-primary/161257-huntsman-qunfortunateq-huckabee-is-not-running

    “It is unfortunate that we will not have his voice — or his bass guitar — in the presidential debate, as our party would have benefited from his involvement,” Huntsman said in a statement.

    “I’m confident that he will continue to be a positive force in the national conversation no matter his future endeavors and I look forward to his continued friendship,” he said.

  49. Nick May 15, 2011 at 6:00 pm #

    Elliot, there is now way Huntsman gets 25%.

  50. Elliot May 15, 2011 at 6:52 pm #

    @Nick

    There are several factors that I considered.

    Who can beat Obama?
    Likableness
    Who is can beat Romney?

    Gov. Huntsman is
    a)likable.
    b)He only candidate who could be Romney.
    c) May be the only candidate who can beat Obama

    3. Gov. Mitch Daniels
    a) boring
    b) extreme on entitlements
    c) blew up the deficit

    4. Gov. Sarah Palin
    a) not serious about running
    b) lacks the knowledge for prime time
    c) unlikable

    5. Gov. Tim Pawlenty
    a) boring
    b) What has Tim Pawlenty done?

    6. Speaker Newt Gingrich
    a) REALLY unlikable
    b)boring

    7. Rep. Ron Paul
    a) Extreme

    8. Mr. Donald Trump
    a) idiot

    9. Rep. Michele Bachmann
    a)Extreme
    b)lacks the knowledge for prime time

    10. Sen. Rick Santorum
    a) irrelivent

    Romney has only has one major threat to the nomination: Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.

    Social conservates who strongly supported Gov. Mike Huckabee will split and support other candidates weaking the chances of a socially conservative nominee.

  51. Elliot May 15, 2011 at 6:57 pm #

    Gov. Gary Johnson
    a) not mainstream enought
    b) people will probably back Rep. Ron Paul

  52. Elliot May 15, 2011 at 6:58 pm #

    Gov. Mitt Romney 31%
    2. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 25%
    3. Gov. Mitch Daniels 16%
    4. Gov. Sarah Palin 10%
    5. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 4%
    6. Speaker Newt Gingrich 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8. Mr. Donald Trump 3%
    9. Rep. Michele Bachmann 2%
    10.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    11. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

  53. anthony_270admin May 16, 2011 at 9:37 am #

    Removed Huckabee, shifted Huntsman 8% -> 11%, Pawlenty 17% -> 19%, Romney 26% -> 27%.

  54. anthony_270admin May 17, 2011 at 5:01 pm #

    Removed Trump.

  55. anthony_270admin May 17, 2011 at 5:04 pm #

    Newt Gingrich 4% -> 3% due to comments on Paul Ryan’s budget plan.

  56. Elliot May 22, 2011 at 10:56 am #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 40%
    2. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 27%
    3. Gov. Sarah Palin 18%
    4. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 4%
    5. Speaker Newt Gingrich 3%
    6. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    7. Rep. Michele Bachmann 3%
    8.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    9. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

  57. anthony_270admin May 22, 2011 at 5:34 pm #

    Removed Daniels (14% -> 0%).

    Added Herman Cain at 1%.

    Romney 27%->32%
    Pawlenty 19%->24%
    Huntsman 11%->12%
    Palin 9%->10%
    Bachmann 2%->4%

  58. Nick May 25, 2011 at 8:22 pm #

    Romney = 30%
    Gingrich = 15%
    Bachmann = 7%
    Cain = 7%
    Pawlenty = 5%
    Santorum = 3%
    Huntsman = 1%

  59. Elliot May 28, 2011 at 9:23 pm #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 40%
    2. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 27%
    3. Gov. Sarah Palin 17%
    4. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 4%
    5. Speaker Newt Gingrich 3%
    6. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    7. Rep. Michele Bachmann 3%
    8. Mr. Herman Cain
    9.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    10. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

  60. Matt May 29, 2011 at 8:34 am #

    1. Gov. Mitt Romney 25%
    2. Gov. Sarah Palin 18%
    3. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 16%
    4. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 15%
    5. Rep. Michele Bachmann 10%
    6. Herman Cain 6%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 4%
    8. Newt Gingrich 3%
    9. Sen. Rick Santorum 2%
    10. Gov. Gary Johnson 1%

  61. Nick May 31, 2011 at 11:22 pm #

    Jon Huntsman Jr. is polling at ONE percent!!!!??? PPP just released a poll where Herman Cain is in second. In Gallup, Cain is polling at 8% nationally. Time to change your #’s.

  62. Elliot June 1, 2011 at 7:38 am #

    @Nick

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 40%
    2. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 27%
    3. Gov. Sarah Palin 17%
    4. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 4%
    5. Speaker Newt Gingrich 3%
    6. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    7. Rep. Michele Bachmann 3%
    8. Mr. Herman Cain 1%
    9.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    10. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

    It’s not only about poll #s. Herman Cain is simply riding a debate bump that will go away once other candidates participate in the debates. Gov. Huntsman Jr. is the candidate which the Democrates fear the most and has the best record of all the republican candidates. With time, Gov. Huntsman Jr.’s name recognition will improve and he will go up in the polls.

  63. Nick June 1, 2011 at 11:39 am #

    @Elliot that is pure speculation, with no evidence whatsoever.

  64. Elliot June 1, 2011 at 11:46 am #

    “The moderate Republican had once been considered a rising star in the GOP and a likely 2012 contender, with David Plouffe, Barack Obama’s campaign mastermind, even identifying Huntsman as the only Republican who made him “a wee bit queasy” about the next race.”

    http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/04/the-manchurian-candidate.html

  65. anthony_270admin June 1, 2011 at 8:15 pm #

    @Nick, “Jon Huntsman Jr. is polling at ONE percent!!!!??? PPP just released a poll where Herman Cain is in second. In Gallup, Cain is polling at 8% nationally. Time to change your #’s.”

    These numbers aren’t just based on polling. They’re based on my estimate of the candidates’ chances of winning the nomination. My feeling with Cain is that his support won’t be broad enough to win the nomination (the same as with Paul).

  66. Matt June 3, 2011 at 8:34 pm #

    There is another candidate in the Republican race for president who I neglected to mention. As this piece from Politico shows, I’m not the only one who forgot that Buddy Roemer is running for president: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/56187.html

  67. Elliot June 15, 2011 at 7:07 am #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 45%
    2. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 22%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 17%
    4. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    5. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 4%
    6. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    7.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    8. Mr. Herman Cain 1%
    9.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    10. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

  68. Matt June 15, 2011 at 8:43 pm #

    1) Gov. Mitt Romney 23%
    2) Gov. Sarah Palin 16%
    3) Gov. Tim Pawlenty 12%
    4) Rep. Michele Bachmann 12%
    5) Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr. 10%
    6) Gov. Rick Perry 10%
    7) Herman Cain 6%
    8) Rep. Ron Paul 5%
    9) Sen. Rick Santorum 3%
    10) Newt Gingrich 2%
    11) Gov. Gary Johnson 1%

  69. Nick June 17, 2011 at 1:02 am #

    1) Gov. Mitt Romney 34%
    2) Rep. Michele Bachmann 18%
    3) Gov. Rick Perry 13%
    4) Herman Cain 10%
    5) Newt Gingrich 8%
    6) Ron Paul 7%
    7) Gov. Tim Pawlenty 6%
    8)John Huntsman 4%
    9) Sen. Rick Santorum 3%
    10) Gov. Gary Johnson 1%

  70. Elliot June 17, 2011 at 1:53 am #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 28%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 26 %
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 15%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 15%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    9. Mr. Herman Cain 1%
    10.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    11. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

  71. POLLWONK June 18, 2011 at 6:51 pm #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 34%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 21 %
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 17%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 10%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 8%
    6. Rep. Ron Paul 6%
    7. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 4% (he’s killed his chances with his poor debating)
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 4%
    9. Mr. Herman Cain 4%
    10. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%
    11.Gov. Gary Johnson 0.5%

  72. Elliot June 24, 2011 at 12:56 pm #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 28%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 20%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 18%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 18%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    9. Mr. Herman Cain 1%
    10.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    11. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

  73. Elliot June 24, 2011 at 4:08 pm #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 28%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 20%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 18%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 18%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Herman Cain 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    9. Gov. Tim Pawlenty %
    10.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    11. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

    1st Tier Romney, Perry (May drop to 2nd Tier because he is not as conservative as he claims to be http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2011/06/perry-watch-fact-checking-rick-perrys-claims-about-his-texas-record/) Bachmann, Huntsman (Extraordinary record as governor just lacks name recognition )

    2nd Tier Palin, Paul, Cain

    3rd Gingrich, Pawlenty (He was terrible in the debate, is a lousy speaker, horrible governor, Johnson, Santorum

  74. POLLWONK June 27, 2011 at 11:16 am #

    @Elliot

    I agree with your statements about Pawlenty. He appears weak and uncharismatic. I agree with most of your ratings. The only one I am kind of confused on is Huntsman. I think some of his social views may severly hamper his campaign. I would put him more at a 15%

    Overall though, I feel your ratings are very accurate

  75. Elliot June 27, 2011 at 12:06 pm #

    @POLLWONK

    “But Mr. Huntsman’s positions on gay rights — while to the left of most of his opponents — are likely to be among the least of his concerns. In fact, Mr. Huntsman’s views on gay rights are very close to those of the typical Republican voter — closer than those of someone like Tim Pawlenty.”

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/12/huntsmans-positions-on-gay-rights-are-within-the-g-o-p-mainstream/

  76. Elliot June 27, 2011 at 9:12 pm #

    Without Perry

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 36%
    2. Rep. Michele Bachmann 29%
    3. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 19%
    4. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    5. Herman Cain 4%
    6. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    7.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    8. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 1%
    9.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    10. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

  77. Elliot July 1, 2011 at 11:09 am #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 36%
    2. Rep. Michele Bachmann 29%
    3. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 19%
    4. Gov. Sarah Palin 4%
    5. Herman Cain 4%
    6. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    7.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    8. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 1%
    9.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    10. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%
    11. Rep. McCotter 1%

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 28%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 20%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 18%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 18%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 4%
    6. Herman Cain 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    9. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 1 %
    10.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    11. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%
    12. Rep. McCotter 1%

  78. POLLWONK July 8, 2011 at 5:59 pm #

    thad mccotter should be a 0.01%…he has literally zero hope…

    POLLWONK

  79. POLLWONK July 15, 2011 at 8:12 am #

    Rick Perry needs to be way higher than an 8%. He deserves at least a 15%.

  80. Elliot July 15, 2011 at 10:59 am #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 31%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 20%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 18%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 15%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Herman Cain 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    9. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 1 %
    10.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    11. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

  81. POLLWONK July 18, 2011 at 3:37 pm #

    @Elliot July 15, 2011 at 10:59 am #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 31%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 20%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 18%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 15%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Herman Cain 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    9. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 1 %
    10.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    11. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

    I agree totally…

  82. Elliot August 13, 2011 at 8:05 pm #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 31%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 25%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 20%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 8%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Herman Cain 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    9. Gov. Tim Pawlenty 1 %
    10.Gov. Gary Johnson 1%
    11. Sen. Rick Santorum 1%

  83. Elliot August 14, 2011 at 6:17 pm #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 31%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 25%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 21%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 8%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Herman Cain 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    10.Sen. Rick Santorum 1%
    11. Gov. Gary Johnson 1%

  84. POLLWONK August 15, 2011 at 10:22 am #

    @Elliot August 14, 2011 at 6:17 pm #
    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 31%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 25%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 21%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 8%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Herman Cain 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    10.Sen. Rick Santorum 1%
    11. Gov. Gary Johnson 1%

    I think your rating of Mitt Romney is accurate to the point…I think its right that Perry should have a 25%. He is defintitly a candidate who could unite the party. I also think that once candidates begin dropping out, they’ll endorse him over Romney. I agree with
    your critque of Bachmann and Hunstman. I was kind of dissapointed with Huntsman’s performance in the debate so that will probably hurt him…he’s certainly not out of it though…Palin is a no brainer…Cain as well…Paul as well…I think Gingrich could be a tad higher, maybe 3% or a 4%, but I don’t think he’s going to win the nomination…Santorum and Johnson pretty much have no hope…I might even put Johnson at a 0.001%

  85. Elliot August 15, 2011 at 1:40 pm #

    “I think your rating of Mitt Romney is accurate to the point…I think its right that Perry should have a 25%. He is defintitly a candidate who could unite the party. I also think that once candidates begin dropping out, they’ll endorse him over Romney. I agree with
    your critque of Bachmann and Hunstman. I was kind of dissapointed with Huntsman’s performance in the debate so that will probably hurt him…he’s certainly not out of it though…Palin is a no brainer…Cain as well…Paul as well…I think Gingrich could be a tad higher, maybe 3% or a 4%, but I don’t think he’s going to win the nomination…Santorum and Johnson pretty much have no hope…I might even put Johnson at a 0.001%”

    General Election Rankings

    Very Dangerous:
    Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.- David Plouffe said Huntsman was only one he was “a wee bit queasy” about facing

    Dangerous:
    Gov. Mitt Romney- in almost every poll, Romney is statistically tie with Obama, but may have trouble with flip-flops and may look that Gov. Romney only care about rich people.

    Potentially Dangerous:
    Gov. Rick Perry: His record is not as good as it was being sold now. Attacks on Perry’s religious statements will come (see “I’m a Prophet). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KamKMU7Gl_o
    Rep. Michele Bachmann: Despite Bachamann’s many gaffes, she has a huge following. It may be enough to win???

    Not Dangerous:
    Gov. Sarah Palin
    Herman Cain
    Rep. Ron Paul
    Speaker Newt Gingrich
    Sen. Rick Santorum
    Gov. Gary Johnson

  86. Elliot August 15, 2011 at 9:43 pm #

    Also, Obama is and will be in massive trouble. He has demoralized the Progressive Base of the Democratic Party. Obama’s approval rating is 39% percent and will probably keep on failing. When Obama agrees to cuts in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, people will LOSE their minds and will DEMAND a primary challenger whether it is Russ Feingold or Howard Dean (note I see more people cite Senator Feingold than Governor Dean as a potential primary challenger). I find it hard to believe that Obama could survive a primary challenger under these circumstances. Obama will probably lose massively in the general election if he is unchallenged. Obama simply can’t or won’t make the political maneuvers that he needs to get reelected.

  87. Elliot August 15, 2011 at 10:08 pm #

    Arguments against Obama Reelection
    1.No President since FDR has been reelected when unemployment is over 7.6%
    2. Obama demoralized his base and alienated Independents.
    3. Obama plays politics wrong. He just agrees with Republicans and never fights back.

    Argument for Obama Reelection
    1. Obama should have a decent chance against a Tea Party Republican

    Argument for Primarying Obama
    1.Saves Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid
    2.Put a Real Progressive in the White House
    3. Obama will either agree with Republicans if he is reelected or a Republican will be President
    4. Obama is going to lose anyway if history serves as a guide
    5. Primaries occur because the President is too weak and people want challenger.

    Arguments against Primarying Obama
    1.Primaries doom the incumbent President’s chances of reelection

  88. Elliot August 16, 2011 at 7:18 am #

    Newt Gingrich is 2nd least popular Republican in the country. He has no chance (go look up the government shutdown of 1995 and 1996) and should drop out ASAP.

  89. Elliot August 24, 2011 at 3:27 pm #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 28%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 28%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 17%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 12%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Herman Cain 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    9.Sen. Rick Santorum 1%
    10. Gov. Gary Johnson 1%

  90. Mike September 4, 2011 at 9:10 am #

    @ Elliot

    Huntsman at 12%? Really? You must be a Mormon or something. He has no significant name recognition outside of Utah, has never polled over 4% nationally, and is sitting solidly at 2 and 4% in Iowa and New Hampshire. He properly belongs lumped with the masses at 1% like Santorum, Gingrich and Cain. It’s really a 2 man race right now with a slight edge to Romney who already has a nationwide organization. Bachmann is running for VP. Paul pisses off alot of people, but should probably be given more respect than 3% – with open primaries out there and his anti-war stance he could get lots of crossover votes if there is no primary opponent for Obama. Palin has high negatives which would stop her, but I think her 5% is about right.

  91. Mike September 4, 2011 at 9:17 am #

    1. Romney 40%
    2. Perry 35%
    3. Bachmann 10%
    4. Palin 6%
    5. Paul 5%
    6. Cain 1%
    7. Gingrich 1%
    8. Santorum 1%
    9. Huntsman 1%

  92. Elliot September 4, 2011 at 9:30 am #

    Governor Huntsman has a great job record. Utah was #1 on job growth. If Huntsman keeps on saying this, he will climb in the polls.
    It was unwise for you to accuse me of being a Mormon (I’m not). I judge all candidates impartially.

    “I have no idea where that might have come from, entrepreneurs are people, but how it came out in his event, I’m not sure what it was based on. If you look at our job creation record, under our governorship versus his in Massachusetts, we were the number one job creator during that reporting period because of what we did to create historic tax cuts and create the most business friendly environment. Massachusetts under governor Romney was number 47,” he said.

    “We’re going to want a governor with a track record of success as opposed to one who was number 47. First versus 47th, I think there’s a huge difference in that, particularly going up against a president who doesn’t have a track record at all of expanding the economy or successfully creating jobs.”
    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/08/huntsman-sharpens-his-romney-rhetoric/

  93. Mike September 4, 2011 at 10:00 am #

    @Elliot

    I’m not debating his record, just his chances. It’s getting late in the day, and he has no big money coming in (Romney and Perry) nor any prospects as I can tell. Additionally, there is no ground swell following like Huckabee, Bachmann, Palin, or Paul. I see no clear path to nomination for him barring some kind of disaster for Romney. Their support seems to come from the same segment, but Romney has the organization. Huntsman is running for 2016 or 2020…just getting his name out there this time around.

  94. Elliot September 4, 2011 at 10:32 am #

    How Huntsman wins the Republican nomination

    1. Hammer Romney and Perry on the job creation records, state that he was #1 in job creation.
    2. Make sure that Huntsman is known as the non-crazy Republican
    3. Wait for Perry and Bachmann to implode (they are going to say something stupid or crazy)
    4. Hammer Romney on flip-flops and Perry on his donor’s deals and his fake Texas miracle.

  95. POLLWONK September 5, 2011 at 7:26 am #

    “How Huntsman wins the Republican nomination

    1. Hammer Romney and Perry on the job creation records, state that he was #1 in job creation.
    2. Make sure that Huntsman is known as the non-crazy Republican
    3. Wait for Perry and Bachmann to implode (they are going to say something stupid or crazy)
    4. Hammer Romney on flip-flops and Perry on his donor’s deals and his fake Texas miracle.”

    1. Huntsman had a strong economy in Utah…low unemployment. But comparatively to Texas however, you missed something. Texas gained a whopping 4 electoral votes meaning they’ve seen a huge shift of people come to the Longhorn State. That is why unemployment is high, because people see the great opportunity in the Texan economy which is attracting big corporations comparatively to Utah.
    2. I agree. That must be a priority for Huntsman.
    3. Honestly, all politicians make gaffes. Perry however believes what he says and people love him for it. Tea-Partyers agree with him on many budget issues as well as printing money. Bachmann I think won’t make it far enough to have the opportunity to set off a bombshell.
    4. Again, see point 1.

  96. Elliot September 5, 2011 at 9:12 am #

    The Republican Party as it is today is having its last hurray! The Hispanic population in Texas is projected to become a majority of the state’s population by 2020. The Republican Party of today will no longer exist.

    Debunking the “Texas Miracles” Public Spending helped, not hurt , Texas job creation from Time magazine by Roya Wolverson,

    “Rick Perry’s war against government suffers from funny math. The Texas government and GOP presidential candidate claims his hands-off approach to job growth-scant regulation, low taxes and close business ties-is the secret behind “Texas miracle.” Texas has created nearly as many jobs during Perry’s decade-long tenure as the rest of the country has lost. But while tax credits have lured more business in to the country’s second largest state, the bulk of job growth has been in government, which upped hiring-off the back of an energy-sector boom and the help from federal dole-even as other states cut workers. Now, looming state budget cuts could set the “miracle” back. Already, a dip in government jobs to a rise in Texas’ jobless rate, from 8.2% in June to 8.4% in July.” (sources form the Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Energy Information Administration)

    “We know dollars do fare more to create jobs and prosperity in the people’s hands than they do in the government’s”- Rick Perry, August 2011

    1.Commodity prices rise: Rising demand for energy and materials in emerging markets, together with a falling U.S. dollar, drove up commodity prices for oil, gas and minerals, fueling big
    Texas industries Oil Prices rose 265% between 2000-2010

    2.Oil and gas boom: Massive investments in oil, gas, and mining sectors helped Texas create jobs and growth during the downturn and absorb a booming population. During Perry’s tenures, oil-and-gas jobs have grown by more than 40%. Gas, Oil, and Mining Output in 2010 $114 Billion Up 166% 2000-2010

    3.Goverment Spending increases: Steady profits in oil and gas-coupled with a steep rise in federal spending for Texas’ military installation and NASA over the past decade- helped boost state coffers and shield the state’s workforce form a deeper recession.

    4. Public-sector jobs grow: Despite the go-it-alone image Perry cultivates, private-sector jobs have fallen by 0.7% since December 2007, when the recession hit, while public-sector jobs have grown by 3.7% Public-sectors jobs +19%, Private-sectors jobs +8% 2000-2010

    5. Unemployment Falls: In the wake of the Great Recession, Texas, the second largest U.S. state, received the third highest level of federal stimulus money, after New York and California, which helped the Lone Star State balance its budget and create more jobs. Unemployment in 2010 9.6% US and 8.2% Texas

    “Honestly, all politicians make gaffes. Perry however believes what he says and people love him for it. Tea-Partyers agree with him on many budget issues as well as printing money.”

    Honestly, all most of politicians like Rick Perry are bought by the corporations and businesses (which tell their robots what to do), notable exceptions include Russ Feingold, Bernie Sanders, Alan Grayson, Ron Paul, John McCain, and Tom Coburn.

    “Perry has taken it to a whole new level,” said Public Citizen’s director in Texas, Tom Smith. “Time after time, there’s often a direct link between Perry’s decisions and payments to his campaign coffers.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/rick-perrys-donors-fare-well-texas-style/2011/08/18/gIQABHU9tJ_story.html

  97. Mike September 5, 2011 at 12:58 pm #

    @Elliot

    All that said, I would still put my $8 to your $1 that Huntsman does NOT get the nomination. You may choose the multiple. 🙂

  98. Mike September 5, 2011 at 1:01 pm #

    @Pollwonk

    In addition to what you said about Perry’s record in Texas….

    Say what you will about the man (I personally do not like him), he is REALLY good at winning elections. He has an uncanny way of connecting with voters – not as good as Clinton, but c’mon, that guy was a political genius. He could steal your wallet and sleep with your mama and make you feel good about it.

  99. Elliot September 6, 2011 at 5:49 pm #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 28%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 28%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 15%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 14%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Herman Cain 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    9.Sen. Rick Santorum 1%
    10. Gov. Gary Johnson 1%

  100. Mike September 7, 2011 at 5:27 am #

    Looking at all the latest polls from real clear politics, Bachmann’s star appears to be fading. If it fades any more, look for Palin to enter the race. She’ll get an instant pump in the polls like Perry did.

  101. Elliot September 8, 2011 at 7:52 am #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 32%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 24%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 15%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 14%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Herman Cain 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    9.Sen. Rick Santorum 1%
    10. Gov. Gary Johnson 1%

  102. POLLWONK September 8, 2011 at 9:10 am #

    @Elliot

    Honestly, after watching the debates, I’m not impressed by Huntsman that much. He failed expecatations. I think his comment about evolution and global warming will alienate many in the party. Plus, the race is pretty much settled. Its going to be Perry and Romney dueling it out with Bachmann as the dark horse.

    1. Romney 29%
    2. Perry 26%
    3. Bachmann 14%
    4. Herman Cain 9%
    5. Ron Paul 7%
    6. Sarah Palin 5%
    7. Newt Gingrich 4%

  103. Elliot September 8, 2011 at 12:41 pm #

    “Honestly, after watching the debates, I’m not impressed by Huntsman that much. He failed expecatations. I think his comment about evolution and global warming will alienate many in the party. Plus, the race is pretty much settled. Its going to be Perry and Romney dueling it out with Bachmann as the dark horse.”

    I never said Huntsman was going to win. He was number one in job creation and Romney was 47.
    Both Perry and Bachmann are going to blow up. Rick Perry is not a smart guy and doesn’t have a Karl Rove figure guiding him. The only reason that Bachmann got anywhere was because the guidance of Ed Rollins. Rollins is the best campaign manager around (see Reagan’s reelection campaign of ’84).

  104. Elliot September 8, 2011 at 12:48 pm #

    “I think his comment about evolution and global warming will alienate many in the party. ”

    The Republican Party will no longer be able to win an national election in 2020, if they deny evolution and climate change.

  105. Mike September 8, 2011 at 3:36 pm #

    You do not have to deny climate change. Indeed, you would be foolish to do so. The climate changes – the only thing constant is change. However, you can question man’s contribution which is far from proven either way. In fact, the preponderance of the evidence suggests that man’s impact on the climate is limited. Did you see the recent findings from CERN showing the sun’s impact on weather?

    I agree that Perry was distinctly not impressive, he’s not that bright, and with no Karl Rove to protect him from himself, his hubris will get him in trouble. The photos on drudge with him appearing to bully Ron Paul are a prime example. Why would you go over to someone else’s podium with attitude in front of all those cameras – turned off or not? Simply stupid! He has more gaffes coming unless he gets a campaign manager with some sense.

    Huntsman came across a bit too arrogant. He doesn’t connect well. With the new delegate allocation rules in many states, maybe we can see a brokered convention. Now that would be fun!

  106. Elliot September 8, 2011 at 5:16 pm #

    Huntsman slamed Romney and Perry because Huntsman was #1 in job creation! He did well in the debate.

  107. Elliot September 10, 2011 at 8:51 am #

    @POLLWONK “Plus, the race is pretty much settled. Its going to be Perry and Romney dueling it out with Bachmann as the dark horse”

    That logic is very flawed because if that held in 2008 Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. Fred Thompson would have done the best in the primaries. Mitt Romney would have come in 3rd.John McCain had no chance at this stage of the campaign.

  108. Elliot September 10, 2011 at 8:54 am #

    @POLLWONK

    Clinton would have been the Democratic nominee and would crushed Obama, who would have VP.

  109. Mike September 11, 2011 at 1:35 pm #

    @elliot

    That’s not entirely accurate. John McCain never polled below 12% in September 2007 AND he had run a nationwide campaign complete with the organization in 2000. Regarding Clinton and Obama, looking at the polls in September 2007, one would have concluded it was a 3 way affair including John Edwards. Pollwonk isn’t saying Perry is going to win, just that it appears to be between Perry and Romney. That seems to be the case; although, I feel Perry will implode.

  110. Mike September 23, 2011 at 9:37 am #

    Has anyone created a 2012 scenario with the candidates and adjusted electoral college distribution using the existing game?

  111. Elliot September 25, 2011 at 7:26 am #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 37%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 19%
    3. Rep. Michele Bachmann 15%
    4. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 14%
    5. Gov. Sarah Palin 5%
    6. Herman Cain 4%
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%
    9.Sen. Rick Santorum 1%
    10. Gov. Gary Johnson 1%

  112. anthony_270admin September 26, 2011 at 7:12 pm #

    @Mike, you might want to check the 270soft forum, and look at the scenario creation forum there ( http://270soft.ipbhost.com ).

  113. Mike September 29, 2011 at 11:08 am #

    Revised chances. Lots of weird happenings. Cain wins Florida straw poll and gets a huge bounce. Gingrich gaining traction. Paul steps up in some national polls almost equal to Obama. Bachmann falling off the map. Palin appears to be staying out.

    1. Romney 45%
    2. Perry 14%
    3. Paul 10%
    4. Cain 10%
    5. Gingrich 10%
    6. Bachmann 5%
    7. Palin 5%
    8. Santorum 0.8%
    9. Huntsman 0.2%

  114. Elliot September 29, 2011 at 12:48 pm #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 41%- Romney has made the case that he is the only viable candidate in both the primary and general election
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 19%- gaffes and mistakes weaken Perry’s standing
    3. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 15%- doing better job selling his record, polling third in New Hampshire, probably going to surge there like Senator John McCain.
    4. Rep. Michele Bachmann 10%- gaffes and mistakes without Ed Rollins
    5. Herman Cain 5%- Herman Cain is strong in straw polls, but loses momentum shortly afterwords.
    6. Gov. Sarah Palin 4%- not going to run
    7. Rep. Ron Paul 3%- Ron Paul has hit his ceiling
    8.Speaker Newt Gingrich 1%- too much bagage even though good debate preformance
    9.Sen. Rick Santorum 1% -irrelivant
    10. Gov. Gary Johnson 1% -irrelivant

  115. Mike September 30, 2011 at 10:44 am #

    @Eliot Your love affair with Gov. Huntsman is painful to watch. You have Santorum at 1% and “irrelevant,” but Rick has consistently rated higher in the national polls than Huntsman. Gingrich does have a lot of baggage, but that isn’t as important to primary voters who still recall his victory in 1994. Huntsman’s rhetoric is more important than his “record” at this point in the primary season. He insulted the Republican base on climate change and evolution. Every debate sees his negatives rise faster than his acceptance.

    I would be surprised if Huntsman is able to best Paul in New Hampshire, much less Mitt.

  116. Elliot September 30, 2011 at 1:13 pm #

    I’m undecided who to vote for. Even if I decided to who to vote for, I will still be objective.

    National polls don’t matter as much, state-wide polls do. Gingrich is a very unpopular man. Ron Paul only appeals to certain segment in the population. Rick Santorum is in low single ditgets in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and is staying there. Huntsman recently hit 10% in New Hampshire and Joe Scarborough predicted a two man race between Huntsman and Romney.

  117. Mike November 1, 2011 at 4:54 pm #

    Boy, did Perry take a header – definitely not ready for prime time. Standings revised:

    Romney 40%
    Cain 30%
    Gingrich 15%
    Paul 10%
    the field 5%

  118. Elliot November 1, 2011 at 9:30 pm #

    1.Gov. Mitt Romney 72%
    2.Gov. Rick Perry 20%
    3. Herman Cain 3%.
    4. Speaker Newt Gingrich 2%
    5. Rep. Ron Paul 1%
    6 Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. 1%
    7. Rep. Michele Bachmann .7%
    8.Sen. Rick Santorum .2%
    9. Gov. Gary Johnson .1%

  119. Dale Jr Blog November 2, 2011 at 9:36 am #

    Current Strategies/Situations

    Romney – hovering, staying out of the news, outlast strategy 49%
    Perry – Trying to change public persona 25%
    Cain – Hoping to survive current crisis but making money 13%
    Gingrich – Rising in National Polls, no State Polls, needs ground game and $ 12%
    Paul – Is Iran a national security concern now? Good support core, poor Foreign Policy 5%
    Bachmann – Hoping to keep the rest of her staff 1%
    Santorum – Selling Vacuums while going door to door in Iowa 0%
    Huntsman – Hoping for Romney Stumble in NH, good luck 0%
    Johnson – Trying to come up with some more jokes 0%

  120. POLLWONK November 8, 2011 at 11:12 am #

    1. Mitt Romney- 50%
    2. Herman Cain- 21%
    3. Rick Perry- 10%
    4. Newt Gingrich- 9%
    5. Ron Paul- 7%
    6. Jon Huntsman- 3%
    7. Michele Bachmann- 2%
    8. Gary Johnson- 1%
    9. Rick Santorum- 0.0005%

  121. Jonathan S. November 21, 2011 at 8:10 pm #

    I believe when published we should see a Gingrich/Romney Battle both nationally at 20-22 Percent each, and both at the same percentages in Iowa as well as New Hampshire.

    Anyways here is a link to Real Clear’s current National Poll, New Hampshire Poll, and Iowa Poll avg.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

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    […] Removed Republican Standings from the right-hand side of the blog page, because it was a distraction. You are free to continue with your own percentages in the Republican Standings blog post here. […]

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