2014 Mid-Term Predictions

Because they’re fun, here are our week before 2014 mid-term predictions:

Senate: Republicans take a majority with 51 seats.

House: Republicans expand their majority, with 240 seats.

Predictions welcome in the comments – I’ll close the thread as of 12 noon PST October 30th, 2014.

Congress Infinity is here.

To view comments click the title of this post.

7 Responses to 2014 Mid-Term Predictions

  1. Christopher Reed October 29, 2014 at 3:17 pm #

    New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) by 5,000 votes
    North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) by 3%
    Arkansas: Tom Cotton by 4%
    Kentucky: Mitch McConnell by 6%
    Iowa: Joni Ernst by 1%
    South Dakota: Mike Rounds by 10%
    West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito by 15%
    Montana: Steve Daines by 20%
    Kansas: Pat Roberts by 2% (49-47%)
    Georgia: Runoff (Nunn 48-47%) (Perdue wins January runoff 51-48%)
    Louisiana: Runoff, Cassidy leads 43-40%) (Cassidy wins runoff 52-47%)
    Colorado: Cory Gardner wins 50-48%

    GOP picks up Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana, Iowa, Colorado, and retains Kansas, Georgia, and Kentucky to secure a 52-48% GOP majority.

    House: GOP +11 to reach 244 seats.

  2. Jonathan October 29, 2014 at 7:16 pm #

    I hope something happens and the Democrats win the Senate, but unfortunately here are my predictions:

    Republicans win Senate with 52 seats…
    LA ® Cassidy wins with 52%
    AK ® Sullivan wins with 53.5%
    CO (D) Udall wins with 50.5%
    AR ® Cotton wins with 54.5%
    KS ® Roberts wins with 52%
    IA ® Ernst wins with 51%
    GA ® Purdue wins with 51%
    KY ® McConnell wins with 55.5%
    NH (D) Shaheen wins with 54.5%
    NC (D) Hagan wins with 51.5%
    MI (D) Peters wins with 55.5%
    MN (D) Franken wins with 60%
    OR (D) Merkley wins with 62%
    VA (D) Warner wins with 58%

    Here are governor races:
    PA – Wolf (D) wins with 58%
    MA – Coakley (D) wins with 50.5%
    IL – Quinn (D) wins with 51%
    AR – Hutchinson ® wins with 54%
    GA – Carter (D) wins with 50.5% (this is my one random upset pick, Dems are focusing on Georgia)
    FL – Crist (D) wins with 51%
    WI – Burke (D) wins with 52% (how does this impact Walker’s 2016 ambitions?)
    CO – Hickenlooper (D) wins with 52%
    RI – Raimondo (D) wins with 52.5%
    ME – Michaud (D) wins with most votes in 3-way, don’t know if there’s a run-off
    AK – Walker (I) wins 52.5%
    KS – Brownback ® wins with 51%
    NH – Hassan (D) wins with 54%
    MI – Snyder ® wins with 52.5%
    HI – Ige (D) wins the most votes in a 3-way, don’t know if there’s a run-off
    TX – Abbott ® wins with 59%

    Republicans make a slight increase in the House, but I haven’t focused on that enough to make a prediction. Not sure why a Republican house would increase when their approval rating is like 12%

  3. SANC October 29, 2014 at 8:13 pm #

    It could be a case of “a plague o’ both your houses” but the bigger plague would hit the Democrats. Apart from that I’ve got no idea either.

  4. Stephen October 29, 2014 at 9:30 pm #

    With the proviso that things are so close they can change in a week
    http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2650
    – On the fence about IO, AK upset due to turnout (D), and KS, GA, CO (R)
    http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1880
    – Same for IL and MA

  5. Chris October 30, 2014 at 3:02 am #

    Senate: GOP wins 54 seats (wins Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia,Louisiana, New Hampshire; retains Georgia, Kentucky, and Kansas)
    -New Hampshire and Kansas will be within 2 points, North Carolina will be a 3pt or less win for Kay Hagan (Early voting lead seems very strong for Democrats). CO and IA will be less than 4pts and GA and LA will be runoffs that the GOP will win, GA by less than 3pts and LA will be 5-8 pt GOP win.
    -Alaska could be anything (a Republican blow out or a easy Begich win) polling is notoriously unreliable as Ted Stevens (a convicted fellon) almost beat Begich despite being Stevens being down 7pts in the polls (Begich beat Stevens by 1pt in 2008- a fantastic year for democrats) also Historically speaking polls in Alaska are unreliable. See Nate Silvers website link below for a reference to this.
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-alaska-a-frontier-for-bad-polling/

    House: GOP 242 (It could be more but I think 242 is the most likely outcome)

  6. Jonathan October 30, 2014 at 11:12 am #

    I’ll go with 241 for house GOP

  7. anthony_270admin November 1, 2014 at 8:35 am #

    Thanks everyone for the responses! Comments closed.

Powered by WordPress. Designed by WooThemes