Nota bene to Ross Douthat, Florida isn’t an early primary state

Ross Douthat predicts (‘gingerly’) that Marco Rubio will be the Republican nominee. I don’t try to predict these things (I think it’s up to the candidates and their teams, and I don’t think anyone can really know the relevant variables at this point), but one interesting point in his article is

It’s also easier to imagine [Rubio] winning a national primary than it is to figure out which early state he’ll win: He’s a little too moderate for Iowa, a little too conservative for New Hampshire, perhaps not quite combative enough for South Carolina … and so he might end up in the Rudy Giuliani-esque position of banking on his native Florida.

One small problem. Florida is no longer an early primary state. Douthat seems to be thinking in terms of the 2012 (2008) primaries, where Florida was 4th.

This time, Florida is on March 15th, which would make it (currently, things are still in flux) tied for 27th on the Republican primary calendar.

If Rubio doesn’t win until Florida, but then somehow goes on to win the nomination, we might be looking at a convention nominating process. If you take Douthat to be implying Florida will be first and he won’t win another state on the same day, add another 4 states.

That would mean Rubio would have to win the nomination while losing Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Illinois, Mississippi, Michigan, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Louisiana, Kentucky, Kansas, Wyoming, Virginia, Vermont, Texas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Georgia, Colorado, Arkansas, Alaska, Alabama, South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Iowa – 30 states, all before or simultaneous with his first win in Florida.

I think Rubio will have to look for an earlier win than that. If it’s not the first four (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada), then it would have to be one or more (and I think it would actually have to be multiple) on March 1st. That means one or more of Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming.

Considerable interest has focused on polling in Florida on the Republican side, but I think this is because it is the home state of two prominent candidates – Bush and Rubio. It’s not because it’s an early, decisive state. Florida is a big state, with lots of potential delegates, but even there it shares March 15th with other large states – in particular Ohio, which is also typically considered a battleground ‘must win’ state for Republicans in the general. So it’s not even clear if press coverage will be on who wins Florida the day of, unless Rubio and Bush both lose there. If Rubio can’t win there, I imagine people saying, where can he win?

Instead of Florida as the key state Rubio can win to begin an upward trajectory towards the nomination, my guess is that its importance lies in that a Florida loss would end Rubio’s candidacy. Put another way, my guess is that Rubio has to win Florida (or come a close second, perhaps) just to keep in the game, more or less the opposite of what Douthat is claiming.

New campaigns

New user-designed campaigns that have been released the past while include

United States – 2016 with minor parties for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

Sentinel’s United States – 2020 Updates for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

Sentinel’s United States – 2024 Beta for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

Campaign to “Re-Elect” Al Gore – United States 2016 for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

United States – 1800 for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

United States – 1796 for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

United States – 1792 for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

United States – 1788 for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

United States – 2012 (expanded) for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

House of Cards – 2012 for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

United States – 2016 with additional candidates for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

United States – 2008 (Cheney) for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

United States – 2000 – Gore vs. Bush for President Infinity (Windows or Mac)

Note that these are user-designed campaigns, not official ones.

Good gaming!

Upcoming President Infinity – Version Ericson – 2.1.8

Hi everyone,

This post will keep track of changes to the upcoming version of President Infinity v. Ericson – 2.1.8.

Changes so far (this list will be updated as changes are implemented on this side, these changes will not be available until the version is released):

  • fixed a problem using a Windows emulator on Linux that caused ‘DLL not found’ error messages
  • Main Screen > fixed bug if clicked Main Screen before Turn Summary Screen would appear on first turn
  • fixed bug with rounding negative momentum numbers (for example, would display ‘-2.9’ instead of ‘-3’
  • Surrogates > 7 days per turn > fixed bug where wouldn’t fundraise in location set
  • fixed bug where scandal research chance not increasing right amount
  • 7 days per turn > fixed bug where could get wrong number of CPs if less than 7 days left in election
  • can now specify dates for leaders ‘on’ or ‘off’
  • can now specify dates for leaders ‘official’, ‘undecided’, ‘not seeking’
  • Editor > can now specify dates for leaders ‘on’, ‘off’, ‘official’, ‘undecided’, not seeking’
  • 2016 > set all ‘on’ by default candidates to ‘undecided’, set their ‘official’ start dates, set their ‘off’ dates if have withdrawn (note: I set Scott Walker and Jim Webb’s official start dates to July 1st, 2015 instead of July 2nd, simply so they would start ‘decided’ with the July 1st campaign start date – it is highly likely they had decided at this point)
  • 2016 > start dates now July 1st, 2015, Oct. 1st, 2015, and Jan. 1st, 2016
  • 2016 > updated Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada primaries and caucuses dates
  • fixed bug (“=11”) that would occur when computer player ran out of primaries opponents but was still in primaries electoral strategy mode, would occur same turn as final primaries opponent withdrew
  • 1912 > Bull Moose > theodore_roosevelt -> theodore_roosevelt_bull_moose, this fixes bug with selecting Vice-Leader
  • 2016 > Endorsers > KY > Steve Beshear -> Matt Bevin
  • 2016 > Reps > Christie > Leadership 5 -> 4
  • 2016 > Reps > Jindal > Primaries > Debating 4 -> 3
  • 2016 > Reps > Graham > Debating 3 -> 4
  • 2016 > Dems > O’Malley > 4 -> 3
  • 2016 > Reps > Trump > Endorsers > added Ivanka Trump, 1 Barnstorming, 2 Spin, 1 Fundraising
  • Main Screen > if leader has secured nomination, party %s now has leader’s last name
  • Spin Screen > if leader has secured nomination, poll headline now has leader’s last name
  • 2016 > Primaries > Reps > all debates set to 10 candidates max.
  • 2016 > Dems > Clinton > Debating 3 -> 4
  • 2016 > Dems > Webb > Debating 3 -> 2
  • 2016 > Reps > Trump > Issues > Tax Rates > Far-Right -> Center-Right
  • 2016 > Reps > Huckabee > Issues > Tax Rates > Center-Right -> Far-Right
  • 2016, 2012, 2008 > Issues > Abortion > Far-Right > fixed typo
  • 2016 > Primaries > Republicans > Kentucky > FPP -> PR, 5% threshold
  • 2016 > Endorsers > Al Gore > Momentum 0 -> 1
  • 2016 > Endorsers > Dick Cheney > Momentum 0 -> 1
  • 2016 > Debates > Reps > Nov. 15th -> Nov. 10th, 1% -> 2% to qualify
  • Editor > added Events
  • 2008 > fixed bug in events.xml that was causing error when trying to edit id’s in Editor (Note that 2008 descended campaigns can be fixed, but it has to be done manually. Open events.xml in an XML editor, then add the line <conditions/> just after the line <name>Sarah Palin at convention</name> .)
  • 2016 > Reps > Jindal > set to ‘off’ on Nov. 17th, 2015
  • 2016 > updated Presidential and Vice-Presidential debate dates
  • scripted events now cause profile 5 news stories (was 3)
  • 2016 > added 42 events
  • 2008 > Condoleezza Rice > female
  • Select Campaign Screen, Select Leader Screen > fixed bug where last line of blurb might not be displayed

The Canadian election is almost here! Get insight with Prime Minister Infinity

In just a few days, Canada goes to the polls in a 3-way horse race between the Conservatives (Prime Minister Harper), Liberals (Trudeau, son of a former Prime Minister), and the NDP (Mulcair, Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition), with the Greens (May) or BQ (separatists led by Duceppe) possibly holding the balance of power.

Get ready for the Canadian election night on Oct. 19th!

More info here

http://270soft.com/commonwealth-election-games/canada-election-game-2015/

Prime Minister Infinity – Canada is the definitive Canadian election game, and contains 2015 in all its glory (338 ridings, 5 major parties, alternate leaders, and much more), now also contains 2011 and 2008 with more campaigns on the way, an expanded Campaign Editor (make your own Parliamentary campaigns or edit the official ones), and more.

Good gaming!

Congress Infinity – Version Ericson – 2.1.7

Congress Infinity v. Ericson – 2.1.7 for Windows and Mac has been released!

If you are a Congress Infinity owner, you are eligible for this upgrade.

What’s new in this upgrade

  • Added 7 days per turn feature (start a game, press Options button, select ‘7 days per turn’)
  • added Senate 2012
  • Main Screen > added HUD for regional items creating (Ballot, Targeting, Org. Strength, Footsoldiers, Polling)
  • Turn Summary > new sections for categorizing messages, clarified output for various messages
  • A large number of changes to interface
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > NC > Sen. Kay Hagan -> Heath Shuler, Strength 3 -> 2, 53% Rep 47% Dem -> 55% Rep 45% Dem
  • Senate 2016 > Reps > NV > Brian Sandoval -> Rep. Joe Heck, Strength 4 -> 3
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > AZ > Democrat -> Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Strength 2 -> 3
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > IN > Democrat -> Rep. Baron Hill
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > MO > Democrat -> Sec. Jason Kander
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > IA > Democrat -> Rep. Rob Hogg
  • Senate 2016 > Reps > LA > Sen. David Vitter -> Rep. John Fleming, Strength 3 -> 2
  • Senate 2016 > Reps > CO > Rep. Mike Coffman -> Rep. Scott Tipton
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > UT > Democratic -> Rep. Jim Matheson, Strength 2 -> 3
  • Editor > can now edit committee abbreviations (‘NRSC’, ‘DSCC’, and so on)
  • Editor > can edit region names
  • Editor > can add regions (cannot modify region locations yet, so this is useful mostly for congressional districts)
  • Editor > can edit region id’s
  • Editor > can edit region abbreviations
  • Editor > can delete regions
  • Strategy Screen > now displays Org. Strength
  • Select Campaign Screen > no party or leader selected by default
  • fixed bug with rounding negative momentum numbers (for example, would display ‘-2.9′ instead of ‘-3′)
  • Editor > fixed bug where Save As would save to same folder
  • Fixed bug with random graphics filler being displayed around edges of certain screens in Windows 10 (and perhaps other operating systems)
  • Select Leader Screen > blurb can now have multiple pages of text
  • Select Campaign Screen > blurb can now have multiple pages of text

This is a comprehensive update. You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below.

Important: when you receive the e-mail, you will want to download the file from the “win congress infinity” or “mac congress infinity” link.

If for some reason there is no “win congress infinity” or “mac congress infinity” link in your e-mail and you are a Congress Infinity owner, please notify us and we will fix that for you.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/congress-infinity-version-information/

Congress Infinity – Senate 2012

Completed a first game of the Senate 2012 campaign on 7 days per turn mode.

Here’s the screen cap from election night featuring the closest election of the night, Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth Warren (50.4%-49.6%). I also managed to take out Jon Tester in Montana (52.1%-47.9%), making sure he would not be the DSCC Chairman for the 2016 campaign. All in all I managed to take 17/33 Senate seats (in reality, the Reps won 8, Dems won 23, Ind 2, so an increase of 9). It’s slim pickings beyond 54 for the Reps, though. Ohio would probably have been the next one to target, then Michigan. Getting to 60 (filibuster-proof) is very difficult indeed, much less the 67 required to override a Presidential veto.

senate_2012

Upcoming Congress Infinity – Version Ericson – 2.1.7

Hi everyone,

This post will keep track of changes to the upcoming version of Congress Infinity v. Ericson – 2.1.7.

Changes so far (this list will be updated as changes are implemented on this side, these changes will not be available until the version is released):

  • A large number of changes to interface
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > NC > Sen. Kay Hagan -> Democrat, Strength 3 -> 2
  • Senate 2016 > Reps > NV > Brian Sandoval -> Rep. Joe Heck, Strength 4 -> 3
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > AZ > Democrat -> Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Strength 2 -> 3
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > IN > Democrat -> Rep. Baron Hill
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > MO > Democrat -> Sec. Jason Kander
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > IA > Democrat -> Rep. Rob Hogg
  • Senate 2016 > Reps > LA > Sen. David Vitter -> Rep. John Fleming, Strength 3 -> 2
  • Senate 2016 > Reps > CO > Rep. Mike Coffman -> Rep. Scott Tipton
  • Senate 2016 > Dems > UT > Democratic -> Rep. Jim Matheson, Strength 2 -> 3
  • Campaign Editor > can now edit committee abbreviations (‘NRSC’, ‘DSCC’, and so on)
  • added Senate 2012
  • fixed bug with rounding negative momentum numbers (for example, would display ‘-2.9’ instead of ‘-3’)
  • Senate 2016 > NC > Democrat -> Heath Shuler, 53% Rep 47% Dem -> 55% Rep 45% Dem
  • Added 7 days per turn feature
  • Main Screen > added HUD for regional items creating (Ballot, Targeting, Org. Strength, Footsoldiers, Polling)
  • Turn Summary > new sections for categorizing messages, clarified output for various messages
  • Select Campaign Screen > no party or leader selected by default
  • Campaign Editor > fixed bug where Save As would save to same folder
  • Fixed bug with random graphics filler being displayed around edges of certain screens in Windows 10 (and perhaps other operating systems)
  • Strategy Screen > now displays Org. Strength
  • Editor > can edit region names
  • Editor > can add regions (cannot modify region locations yet, so this is useful mostly for congressional districts)
  • Editor > can edit region id’s
  • Editor > can edit region abbreviations
  • Editor > can delete regions
  • Select Leader Screen > blurb can now have multiple pages of text
  • Select Campaign Screen > blurb can now have multiple pages of text

Prime Minister Infinity – Canada – Version Ericson – 2.1.6

Prime Minister Infinity – Canada v. Ericson – 2.1.6 for Windows and Mac has been released!

If you are a Prime Minister Infinity – Canada owner, you are eligible for this upgrade.

What’s new in this upgrade

  • added 2008 campaign (Harper vs. Dion vs. Layton vs. Duceppe vs. May)
  • Main Screen > Leader Activities > when click to change location for activity, now shows Strategy Screen to select region
  • Select Leader Screen > if change leader, now updates blurb
  • fixed bug on Mac where would get ‘List index out of bounds’ error when scheduling activities
  • 7 days per turn > Issue Familiarity and Debate Prep. messages only show once per turn
  • Select Campaign Screen > blurb can now have multiple pages of text

This is a comprehensive update. You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below.

Important: when you receive the e-mail, you will want to download the file from the “win pmi canada” or “mac pmi canada” link.

If for some reason there is no “win pmi canada” or “mac pmi canada” link in your e-mail and you are a Prime Mininster Infinity – Canada owner, please notify us and we will fix that for you.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/prime-minister-infinity-canada-version-information/