Iowa Predictions!

Hi everyone,

Make your Iowa predictions here – Rep, Dem, or both. I’ll make a ‘highscores’ post on Feb. 2nd.

For Republican predictions, the winner will be whoever gets the top 3 correct (Rep) and among those (if more than one person gets the order right) who has the closest match for %s.  For Dems, the winner will be whoever gets 1st correct and among those (if more than one person gets the order right) who has the closest match for %s between the top 2.

Honorable mentions for anyone who gets the top 3 (in order) for Reps or 1st for Dems.

Note: I will be locking the thread at 2PM PST, 5PM EST.

 

Upcoming President Infinity – Version Ericson – 2.2.5

Hi everyone,

This post will keep track of changes to the upcoming version of President Infinity v. Ericson – 2.2.5.

Changes so far (this list will be updated as changes are implemented on this side, these changes will not be available until the version is released):

  • fixed bug where if scripted event occurred that specified a certain leader, and that leader wasn’t in game, would crash game (Code=49 error)
  • 2016 > set all leaders’ Q4 (Dec. 31st, 2015) cash-on-hand values according to FEC, except Donald Trump (self-funding)
  • 2016 > Primaries > Dems, Reps > updated debate schedules
  • 2016 > Endorsers > added Glenn Beck
  • 2016 > fixed general election regional % bonuses for certain leaders

President Infinity – Version Ericson – 2.2.4

President Infinity v. Ericson – 2.2.4 for Windows and Mac has been released!

If you are a President Infinity owner, you are eligible for this upgrade.

Highlights:

This update is primarily for campaign designers. It fixes two bugs with the Editor, makes a few modifications to candidate attributes in 2016, and makes a few updates to endorsers in 2016.

What’s new in this upgrade

  • Editor > Polls > fixed bug where changing id for leader, party, or region didn’t carry over into the polls part of the percentages.xml file (Note: if you have created poll data, then modified id’s for a leader, party, or region before this version, you will have to manually go into the polls section of the percentages.xml file and update them, if you want to keep that poll data for the leader, party, or region in question)
  • Editor > Regions > fixed bug where changing id caused error
  • News stories > now says “has commanding lead” for a candidate, “have commanding lead” for a party
  • 2016 > Dems > Fundraising > Clinton 2 -> 3
  • 2016 > Dems > Fundraising > Sanders 2 -> 3
  • 2016 > Reps > Fundraising > Cruz 2 -> 3
  • 2016 > Greens > Jill Stein > Debating 2 -> 3
  • 2016 > Endorsers > Koch Brothers > Start Oct. 1st, 2015 -> Mar. 15th, 2015, End -> Apr. 15th, 2016
  • Endorsers > Northern Mariana Islands > Eloy Inos -> Ralph Torres
  • Endorsers > Louisiana > added Gov. John Bel Edwards
  • Endorsers > Kentucky > Matt Bevin > fixed surrogate name, changed start date to Dec. 8th, 2015
  • Endorsers > Washington, D.C. > Vincent Gray -> Muriel Bowser

This is a comprehensive update.

You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below.

Important: when you receive the e-mail, you will want to download the file from the “windows president infinity” or “mac president infinity” link.

If for some reason there is no “windows president infinity” or “mac president infinity” link in your e-mail and you are a President Infinity owner, please notify us and we will fix that for you.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/president-infinity-version-information/

Upcoming President Infinity – Version Ericson – 2.2.4

Hi everyone,

This post will keep track of changes to the upcoming version of President Infinity v. Ericson – 2.2.4.

Changes so far (this list will be updated as changes are implemented on this side, these changes will not be available until the version is released):

  • Editor > Polls > fixed bug where changing id for leader, party, or region didn’t carry over into the polls part of the percentages.xml file (Note: if you have created poll data, then modified id’s for a leader, party, or region before this version, you will have to manually go into the polls section of the percentages.xml file and update them, if you want to keep that poll data for the leader, party, or region in question)
  • Editor > Regions > fixed bug where changing id caused error
  • News stories > now says “has commanding lead” for a candidate, “have commanding lead” for a party
  • 2016 > Dems > Fundraising > Clinton 2 -> 3
  • 2016 > Dems > Fundraising > Sanders 2 -> 3
  • 2016 > Reps > Fundraising > Cruz 2 -> 3
  • 2016 > Greens > Jill Stein > Debating 2 -> 3
  • 2016 > Endorsers > Koch Brothers > Start Oct. 1st, 2015 -> Mar. 15th, 2015, End -> Apr. 15th, 2016
  • Endorsers > Northern Mariana Islands > Eloy Inos -> Ralph Torres
  • Endorsers > Louisiana > added Gov. John Bel Edwards
  • Endorsers > Kentucky > Matt Bevin > fixed surrogate name, changed start date to Dec. 8th, 2015
  • Endorsers > Washington, D.C. > Vincent Gray -> Muriel Bowser

President Infinity – Version Ericson – 2.2.3

President Infinity v. Ericson – 2.2.3 for Windows and Mac has been released!

If you are a President Infinity owner, you are eligible for this upgrade.

Highlights:

Significant updates for the official 2016 campaign, with modified %s, starting funds, and attributes. Starting %s now can change with the start date, based on polling data which can be entered into the Editor. New maps can be imported into the Editor, and name and coordinates changed for regions. This update also fixes several bugs, including two bugs that occurred when loading a save game.

What’s new in this upgrade

  • Editor > can now add polling data
  • Select Campaign Screen > primaries > if polling data available, lists leaders by %s
  • Select Campaign Screen > primaries > if polling data available, shows leaders’ approx. national %s
  • Primaries > if polling data available, starting %s determined by polls closest to start date
  • Added initial polling data for 2016 primaries
  • Can now save and load games from user-selected folders
  • Fixed bug where game freezes when loading save games
  • Scripted Events > Turn Summary > shows change in momentum
  • Scripted Events > Turn Summary > shows change in issue profile
  • Spin Screen > fixed bug where certain stories would show a pointing hand image instead of no image
  • Editor > can edit multiple start dates
  • Editor > can set given start date as default when start game
  • Select Campaign Screen > start dates now listed chronologically
  • Editor > can import new maps
  • Editor > can set abbreviation coordinates for a region
  • Editor > can set fill coordinates for a region
  • Editor > can import regional images
  • Starting Funds > leaders can now have different starting funds specified for different start dates
  • Editor > can set different starting funds specified for different start dates
  • 2016 > Clinton, Sanders > set Q4 (Dec. 31st, 2015) self-reported cash-on-hand values
  • 2016 > set all leaders’ Q3 (Sep. 30th, 2015) cash-on-hand values according to FEC, except Donald Trump (self-funding)
  • 2016 > set all leaders’ Q2 (June 30th, 2015) cash-on-hand values according to FEC, except Donald Trump (self-funding)
  • Editor > Leaders > ‘Leaders’ tab -> ‘Basics’ tab
  • Editor > Leaders > Basics > set tab ordering
  • 2016 > all leaders’ default primaries funds set to $0 (this is overridden by date-specific values for candidates who have actually run)
  • 2016 > Trump > Spin > Primaries > 3 -> 4, General 4 -> 5
  • 2016 > Trump > Polling > Primaries > 1 -> 2
  • 2016 > Trump > Ground > Primaries > 1 -> 2
  • 2016 > Trump > Stamina > 3 -> 4
  • 2016 > Debates > Reps > Jan. 15th, 2016 -> Jan. 14th, 2016
  • 2016 > Clinton > Integrity > 3 -> 2
  • 2016 > Trump > SuperPAC > 2 -> 1
  • 2016 > Bush > SuperPAC > 2 -> 3
  • 2016 > Huckabee > SuperPAC > 2 -> 1
  • 2016 > Santorum > SuperPAC > 2 -> 1
  • 2016 > Graham > SuperPAC > 2 -> 1
  • 2016 > Jindal > SuperPAC > 2 -> 1
  • 2016 > Reps > Lindsey Graham > ‘off’ on Dec. 21st, 2015
  • 2016 > Reps > order is now Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush, Christie, Kasich, Paul, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum
  • Mac > fixed bug loading games from the Start Screen
  • 2016 > %s > Jan. 1st > Ohio > Kasich > -> 15%
  • 2016 > %s > Jan. 1st > Arkansas > Huckabee > -> 10%
  • 2016 > %s > Oct. 1st, Jul. 1st > Arkansas > Huckabee > -> 20%
  • 2016 > %s > Jan. 1st, Oct. 1st > Kentucky > Rand Paul > -> 10%
  • 2016 > %s > Oct. 1st > Maryland > Ben Carson > -> 24%
  • 2016 > %s > Jan. 1st > Maryland > added Gonzalez Research poll from Jan. 11-16th, backdated to Dec. 31st
  • 2016 > %s > Jul. 1st > Wisconsin > Scott Walker > -> 30%
  • 2016 > Interviewers > removed Daily Show
  • 2016 > Endorsers > S.C. > added Rep. Trey Gowdy
  • 2016 > Debates > Dems > updated schedule
  • 2016 > Debates > Reps > updated schedule
  • 2012 > Primaries > Hillary Clinton > starts ‘on’ by default

This is a comprehensive update.

You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below.

Important: when you receive the e-mail, you will want to download the file from the “windows president infinity” or “mac president infinity” link.

If for some reason there is no “windows president infinity” or “mac president infinity” link in your e-mail and you are a President Infinity owner, please notify us and we will fix that for you.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/president-infinity-version-information/

President Infinity next release sneak-peek, Windows only

I’m finishing up the next release of President Infinity, but if you want to get a sneak-peek at the release before everyone else does, you can download it here

http://270soft.com/2016/01/22/president-infinity-version-ericson-2-2-3

(Link updated to official release post.)

Note: Windows only at this point. Requires you already have the game installed.

Feedback welcome!

Version details here

http://270soft.com/2015/12/03/upcoming-president-infinity-version-ericson-2-2-3/

Version will say 2.2.3.

Following changes were added to 2.2.3.

  • 2016 > %s > Jan. 1st > Ohio > Kasich > -> 15%
  • 2016 > %s > Jan. 1st > Arkansas > Huckabee > -> 10%
  • 2016 > %s > Oct. 1st, Jul. 1st > Arkansas > Huckabee > -> 20%
  • 2016 > %s > Jan. 1st, Oct. 1st > Kentucky > Rand Paul > -> 10%
  • 2016 > %s > Oct. 1st > Maryland > Ben Carson > -> 24%
  • 2016 > %s > Jan. 1st > Maryland > added Gonzalez Research poll from Jan. 11-16th, backdated to Dec. 31st
  • 2016 > %s > Jul. 1st > Wisconsin > Scott Walker > -> 30%
  • 2016 > Interviewers > removed Daily Show
  • 2016 > Endorsers > S.C. > added Rep. Trey Gowdy
  • 2016 > Debates > Dems > updated schedule
  • 2016 > Debates > Reps > updated schedule
  • Editor > fixed bug when click Polls button on campaigns that don’t have any poll data
  • 2012 > Primaries > Hillary Clinton > starts ‘on’ by default

Jan. 1st Republican Primaries Startings %s

Here is what a game looks like starting on Jan. 1st for the Republican primaries right now, using the new polling feature. (Note: this is the latest internal version, it has not been released yet.)

jan_1_rep

You can ignore the Undecided %s, they aren’t set.

In cases where there is relatively recent (< 1 month old) state polling data, that is used. In other cases, the program uses the candidates’ national %s.

There are a lot of states without any recent public polling data. For example, what looks like a strong band of support for Trump in the deep south is actually an artifact of no polls except for Georgia, so the non-Georgia states are using the national %s.

Campaign designers can input real-world poll data, use aggregates as poll data if they so choose (such as Pollster or RCP) by treating them as a kind of poll, or simply make up their own poll numbers based on a best guess. The above map contains only actual polling data, again with national numbers used where no state numbers are available within 1 month of Jan. 1st. The national numbers are Reuters’, the only one with numbers for the week before Jan. 1st (and not also after that date).

 

30 days to go!

30 days before Iowa’s caucuses on Feb. 1st, 2016! Iowa is the first state in the primaries calendar.

This means that each day is 3.3% of the remaining time before the first caucuses.

New Hampshire’s primary is Feb. 9th.

What are the big stories of the last 30 days? Here are three.

First, evangelical conservative support has coalesced around Ted Cruz, and he has replaced Ben Carson as the second-place candidate in national Republican polls and moved into first in Iowa. He has been helped by what seems a non-aggression pact between him and Trump – I would be interested to know exactly what is going on in this case, as it is crucial.

Second, Trump has continued to lead the Republican national polls, with his RCP average at 35% as of Jan. 1st (Cruz is at 19.5%). That’s 5 1/2 months in first place in the Republican primaries, defying almost all political pundits’ predictions on this matter. (The only relatively high-profile commentator I’m aware of who predicted this early on was Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert. This is a case where an outsider seems to have expertise which ‘insiders’ (conventional political experts) don’t have. If you’re interested, Adams recently also predicted Trump would win the general election in a landslide.)

Third, on the Democratic side, the biggest story is probably that Sanders almost surpassed Clinton in non-Super-PAC fundraising in Q4 ($33.2M to $37M), and that he has retaken the lead in NH. It remains to be seen whether Trump will continue to target Clinton, and if so, whether that will help Sanders.