Iowa Predictions!

Hi everyone,

Make your Iowa predictions here – Rep, Dem, or both. I’ll make a ‘highscores’ post on Feb. 2nd.

For Republican predictions, the winner will be whoever gets the top 3 correct (Rep) and among those (if more than one person gets the order right) who has the closest match for %s.  For Dems, the winner will be whoever gets 1st correct and among those (if more than one person gets the order right) who has the closest match for %s between the top 2.

Honorable mentions for anyone who gets the top 3 (in order) for Reps or 1st for Dems.

Note: I will be locking the thread at 2PM PST, 5PM EST.

 

18 Responses to Iowa Predictions!

  1. Jonathan January 30, 2016 at 5:07 pm #

    DEM:
    Clinton 47%
    Sanders 46%
    O’Malley 5%
    None of the Above 2%

    REP:
    Cruz 27%
    Trump 22%
    Rubio 14%
    Paul 7%
    Bush 6%
    Carson 5%
    Kasich 5%
    Christie 4%
    Santorum 3%
    Huckabee 3%
    Fiorina 2%
    None of the Above 2%

  2. Sean January 30, 2016 at 6:48 pm #

    Dem:
    Sanders 48%
    Clinton 47%
    O’ Malley 4%
    Rep:
    Trump 26%
    Cruz 24%
    Rubio 12%
    Paul 9%
    Bush 8%
    Carson 6%
    Christie 5%
    Kasich 4%
    Fiorina 2%
    Huckabee 1%
    Santorum 1%

  3. jesse January 30, 2016 at 8:05 pm #

    Dem:
    Clinton: 47%
    Sanders: 46%
    O’Malley: 5%
    Other: 2%

    Rep:
    Cruz: 27%
    Trump: 25%
    Rubio: 17%
    Carson: 13%
    Paul: 10%
    Bush: 5%
    Christie: 5%
    Santorum: 3%
    Huckabee: 3%
    Kasich: 3%
    Fiorina: 2%
    Other: 2%

  4. Jacob January 30, 2016 at 9:35 pm #

    Dems:
    Sanders: 46%
    Clinton: 44%
    O’malley: 6%

    Rep:
    Cruz:28%
    Trump:27%
    Rubio:18%
    Carson:10%
    Huckabee:8%
    Paul:7%
    Bush:5%
    Fiorina:4%
    Santorum:3%
    Christie:3%
    Kasich:3%
    Other:2%

  5. Lucas January 30, 2016 at 10:57 pm #

    Dems-
    Clinton 46
    Sanders 49
    O’Malley 5

    Reps-
    Trump 35
    Cruz 34
    Rubio 26

  6. Toby January 31, 2016 at 1:49 am #

    Dems
    Clinton 49
    Sanders 46
    O’Malley 3

    GOP
    Trump 32
    Rubio 23
    Cruz 21

  7. Rophil January 31, 2016 at 4:07 am #

    Democrats

    Clinton /Sanders 48
    O’Malley 4

    Republicans

    Trump 26
    Cruz 22
    Rubio 13
    Paul 11
    Carson 8
    Bush 6
    Huckabee 5
    Santorum 4
    Christie 2
    Fiorina 2
    Kasich 1
    Gilmore 0

  8. Luki January 31, 2016 at 4:45 am #

    Democrats:

    Clinton 48
    Sanders 45
    O’Malley 5

    Republicans:

    Trump 28
    Cruz 25
    Rubio 14
    Carson 10
    Paul 5
    Bush 5
    Christie 4
    Huckabee 3
    Kasich 2
    Fiorina 2
    Santorum 1
    Gilmore 0

  9. John Doe January 31, 2016 at 9:23 am #

    Democrats:

    Clinton 49%
    Sanders 47%
    O’Malley 1%*
    Other 2%

    *I think O’Malley’s numbers are going to be significantly depressed by the fact that candidates with less than 15% of a caucus location’s votes are deemed non-viable.

    Republicans.

    Cruz 25%
    Trump 23%
    Rubio 18%
    Carson 9%
    Huckabee 5%
    Paul 4%
    Bush 4%
    Christie 3%
    Kasich 3%
    Fiorina 2%
    Santorum 2%
    Gilmore 1%
    Other 1%

  10. William January 31, 2016 at 10:31 pm #

    Democrats:

    Clinton – 49
    Sanders – 45
    O’Malley – 5

    Republicans:

    Cruz – 24
    Rubio – 20
    Trump – 19
    Carson – 9
    Paul – 6
    Bush – 5

  11. Robert February 1, 2016 at 12:40 am #

    Trump 30%
    Cruz 21%
    Rubio 15%
    Carson 10%
    Paul 7%
    Bush 5%
    Christie 4%
    Kasich 3%
    Huckabee 3%
    Fiorina 2%
    Santorum 1%
    Gilmore 0%

    Clinton 48%
    Sanders 46%
    O’Malley 5%

  12. Mitchell February 1, 2016 at 2:14 am #

    DEM:
    Clinton 53%
    Sanders 46%
    O’Malley 1%

    Republican:
    Trump 27%
    Cruz 18%
    Rubio 18%
    Carson 9%
    Paul 8%
    Bush 7%
    Kasich 4%
    Huckabee 3%
    Fiorina 2%
    Chirstie 2%
    Santorum 1%
    Gilmore 1%

  13. Dylan February 1, 2016 at 12:21 pm #

    I feel the weather will scare off many possible first time caucus goers, so my predictions:

    Dem
    Clinton 54
    Sanders 45
    O’Malley 1

    Rep
    Cruz 30
    Rubio 24*
    Trump 17

    I also feel during the caucus, many establishment supporters will rally behind Rubio to insure he wins the state and prevent a possible Cruz/Trump victory.

  14. anthony_270admin February 1, 2016 at 2:36 pm #

    I will be locking the thread at 2PM PST, 5PM EST.

  15. Dylan K. February 1, 2016 at 2:39 pm #

    I mean, I’m mostly going to be working off of Ann Selzer’s work since… Well she’s the best at it. So, without further ado:

    Democrats:
    It’s going to be close; after all Clinton’s lead over Sanders according to Selzer is small, 3 points, and that’s exactly as many O’Malley supporters there are. And in places where O’Malley’s supporters don’t meet the threshold (which will be most places honestly), O’Malley voters are more likely to break for Sanders. But Sanders is also relying on an unusual coalition, maybe decreasing turnout. So with that in mind:

    Clinton 45%
    Sanders 44%
    O’Malley 1% (I decided to be generous and think that somewhere at least O’Malley’s gotta get 15%)

    Republicans:
    Now, I don’t believe in the Rubio surge. Very little suggests that he’s had a strong upward mobility beyond a few points (though I think it’s done enough to avoid a risk of falling to 4th behind Carson, his only threat). Nor do I believe that any consolidation behind him will begin at this point. Further up, I do think that Trump and Cruz are closer than Selzer and other polls may suggest, especially with Cruz’s apparently excellent ground game versus Trump’s abysmal one. On the other hand, the Republican caucus is easier on first time voters, perhaps incentivizing them to come out for Trump. With that in mind:

    Trump: 27%
    Cruz: 25%
    Rubio: 14%
    Carson: 11%
    Paul: 5%
    Christie: 2%
    Bush: 2%
    Fiorina: 2%
    Huckabee: 2%
    Kasich: 2%
    Santorum: 1%

    I really wanted to give Cruz the win, but I’m not sure that I could honestly predict that’s what’s going to happen. I’m slightly more confident of a Trump win.

  16. Dominic Bayer February 1, 2016 at 2:42 pm #

    Rep:
    Trump: 25%
    Cruz: 22%
    Rubio: 20%
    Caron: 7%
    Huckabee: 5%
    Paul:5%
    Bush:4%
    Santorum:4%
    Fiorina: 2%
    Christie:2%
    Kasich:2%
    Other (Gilmore, etc.):2%

    Democrat:
    Clinton: 48%
    Sanders: 47%
    O’Malley: 4%
    Other: 1%.

  17. Aaron February 1, 2016 at 2:52 pm #

    DEM:
    Clinton: 53%
    Sanders: 46%
    O’Malley: 1% (If he reaches viability anywhere, much less more that 1-2 precincts, I would be shocked)

    GOP:
    Trump: 30%
    Cruz: 28%
    Rubio: 15%
    Carson: 7%
    Bush: 4%
    Paul: 3%
    Huckabee: 3%
    Christie: 2%
    Kasich: 2%
    Santorum: 2%
    Fiorina: 1%

  18. Nick February 1, 2016 at 3:22 pm #

    Mine are purposely bullish for the GOP, but here.

    GOP:
    Cruz: 33%
    Rubio: 22%
    Trump: 19%
    Bush: 8%
    Paul: 6%
    Carson: 4%
    Christie: 2%
    Huckabee: 2%
    Kasich: 2%
    Fiornia: 1%
    Santorum: 1%

    Dems:
    Clinton: 50%
    Sanders: 48%
    O’Malley: 2%

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