New Hampshire Predictions!

Hi everyone,

Make your New Hampshire predictions here – Rep, Dem, or both. I’ll make a ‘highscores’ post on Feb. 10th.

For Republican predictions, the winner will be whoever gets the top 3 correct (Rep) and among those (if more than one person gets the order right) who has the closest match for %s.  For Dems, the winner will be whoever gets 1st correct and among those (if more than one person gets the order right) who has the closest match for %s between the top 2.

Honorable mentions for anyone who gets the top 3 (in order) for Reps or 1st for Dems.

Note: I will be locking the thread at 2PM PST, 5PM EST.

Note: thread locked. You can see the predictions by clicking on the post link.

13 thoughts on “New Hampshire Predictions!

  1. This is from before the day of the GOP debate (prior to the debate);

    GOP:
    Trump: 24.5%
    Rubio: 22.3%
    Kasich: 18.5%
    Cruz: 15.3%
    Bush: 10%
    Christie: 5.4%
    Fiorina: 2%
    Carson: 2%
    Anyone else: 1% or less.

    Kasich over performs much like Jon Huntsman in 2012. Trump loses support like Iowa but not enough to lose. Rubio over performs as well.

    Dems:

    Sanders: 55%
    Clinton: 45%

    Clinton picks up steam but Sanders still pulls it off.

  2. Democrats

    Sanders 53.2
    Clinton 46.8

    Republicans

    Trump 31
    Kasich 17
    Rubio 16
    Bush 12
    Cruz 11
    Christie 7
    Fiorina 4
    Carson 2

  3. Rep
    Trump 30
    Rubio 17
    Kasich 17
    Cruz 12
    Bush 8
    Carson 8
    Christie 6
    Fiorina 2
    Gilmore 0

    Dems
    Sanders 59
    Clinton 41

  4. Republicans:

    Trump 24
    Rubio 21
    Kasich 19
    Cruz 12
    Christie 11
    Bush 7
    Carson 4
    Fiorina 2
    Gilmore 0

    Democrats:

    Sanders 54
    Clinton 46

  5. Sanders 56.5
    Clinton 43
    Other 0.5

    Kasich 21.5
    Trump 21
    Christie 15
    Bush 14
    Rubio 12
    Cruz 9
    Fiorina 4
    Carson 3
    Other 0.5

    NH voters were 50% undecided during the debates. I think the debates will have some influence. The unpredictability range is fairly great and I think the apparent momentum of certain candidates will lead to a result similar to this. I think Fiorina and maybe Carson drop out after this. Bush may try SC before doing the same.

  6. Dem:
    Sanders: 58%
    Clinton: 41.8%
    Other: .2%

    Rep:
    Trump: 22
    Kasich: 20
    Rubio: 16
    Cruz: 13
    Bush: 12
    Christie: 12
    Fiorina: 3
    Carson: 2

  7. Reps:

    Trump 26%
    Katich 20%
    Cruz 18%
    Rubio 12%
    Bush 9%
    Christie 7%
    Fiorina 5%
    Carson 2%

    Dems:

    Sanders 57%
    Clinton 42%

  8. Trump: 28
    Cruz: 16
    Kasich: 14
    Rubio: 13
    Bush: 10
    Christie: 9
    Fiorina: 5
    Carson: 3
    Gilmore: 0.7
    Other: 1.3

    Sanders: 59
    Clinton: 40
    Other: 1

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