Congratulations to everyone who made a prediction!
The work for this is included in the spreadsheet New Hampshire Primaries Predictions. If I’ve made any errors or overlooked anything, please let me know!
Highscores, Reps (Actual results: Trump 35.3%, Kasich 15.8%, Cruz 11.7%)
Only one person got the correct top 3 in order. Kevin correctly called Trump-Kasich-Cruz (26-20-18).
6 people got Trump-Kasich correct. Dylan and Aaron tied for first in terms of ave. % point error, at 2.55.
- Dylan (31-15)
- Aaron (31-15)
- Rophil (31-17)
- Jeff (27-16)
- William (25-23)
- Jesse (22-20)
Eric correctly called the top 3, but not in the right order (Trump-Cruz-Kasich), at 28-16-14.
3 people also called the correct winner in addition to the people above.
- Chris (Trump-Rubio, 30-17)
- Luki (Trump-Rubio, 24-21)
- Nick (Trump-Rubio, 24.5-22.3)
For contrast, Nick Silver (Trump-Rubio-Kasich, 26.8-15.7-15.2) of 538 fame didn’t get the top 3 in order (Kevin beat him), didn’t get the top 2 right (Dylan, Aaron, Rophil, Jeff, William, and Jesse beat him), and didn’t get the top 3 even out of order (Eric beat him). He did correctly call a Trump win though, so how did he do on the spread between 1st and 2nd (probably the most significant number of the night)? He would have come fifth here, after Dylan, Rophil, Aaron, Chris.
Highscores, Dems (Actual results: Sanders 60.4%, Clinton 38%)
Everyone who made a prediction accurately predicted the winner. Listed in order of ave. % point error.
- Eric (59-40, 1.7)
- Chris (59-41, 2.2)
- Jesse (58-41.8, 3.1)
- Kevin (57-42, 3.7)
- Jonathan (56.5-43, 4.45)
- Jeff (56-44, 5.2)
- Nick (55-45, 6.2)
- Aaron (54-45, 6.7)
- Luki (54-46, 7.2)
- Rophil (53.2-46.8, 8)
- Dylan (53-47, 8.2)
- William (52-48, 9.2)
For contrast, Nate Silver (57.2-39.9, 2.55) would have placed 3rd here.