South Carolina (R) and Nevada (D) Predictions!

Hi everyone,

Make your South Carolina (R) and Nevada (D) predictions here – just one or both. I’ll make a ‘highscores’ post on Feb. 21st.

For Republican predictions, the winner will be whoever gets the top 3 correct (Rep) and among those (if more than one person gets the order right) who has the closest match for %s.  For Dems, the winner will be whoever gets 1st correct and among those (if more than one person gets the order right) who has the closest match for %s between the top 2.

Honorable mentions for anyone who gets the top 3 (in order) for Reps or 1st for Dems.

Note: I will be locking the thread at 10AM PST, 1PM EST on Feb. 20th.

You can click the subject link to view the predictions.

20 thoughts on “South Carolina (R) and Nevada (D) Predictions!

  1. Okay! So I missed New Hampshire because… Well I had no idea what how it was going to turn out, and once I made my predictions I missed the deadline. Oh well, I would have done terribly (I was shocked by a Rubio 5th place finish, even if I am remarkably bearish on Rubio in general, and also 22 point win for Sanders was beyond my expectation). And now we have two more extremely difficult ones to predict, for reasons that I’ll explain. But here we go:

    Nevada Caucus (Democrats):
    Clinton: 51%
    Sanders: 49%

    Not going to make the same mistake I did last time and vastly overestimate how many people chose undecided. But, on the other hand, who actually knows what’s going to happen in Nevada? As I write this I can find only three polls taken THIS YEAR, (though admittedly all this month). While two suggest a narrow Clinton lead (one at 3 points and one at 6 points), and the other suggests a tie, there isn’t a lot to go on. So, well, I’m just going to throw that up there and hope that it works out. Will it? Who knows?

    South Carolina Primary (Republicans):
    1. Trump: 35%
    2. Cruz: 20%
    3. Rubio: 15%
    4. Bush: 13%
    5. Kasich: 9%
    6: Carson: 8%

    Now, while New Hampshire, in my estimation, might be one of the hardest states for me personally to predict, South Carolina has given me the weirdest polling so far. Unlike Nevada, there’s so much polling, and while it shows Trump ahead and Cruz and Rubio battling for second, whether or not Bush will make it past ten, well…. About half the polls I’ve seen says yes, he’s in the 13-16% range, and the other half has him languishing at around 9%. And… that’s important. For while I’m bearish on Rubio and bullish on Cruz (though far less bullish on Cruz than I was feeling in Iowa), Rubio is well suited for South Carolina. His strongest speaking point is on the military, and in a state with eight military bases, it’s got to play well. On the other hand, if South Carolinians, which is one of the most Pro-Bush states left in the country, feel so inclined, they can suck away some Rubio support and give it to Bush. And inevitably I went with the voice in my gut: Bush will get a boost for a) the Bush name and b) I think Rubio’s chances are vastly overrated, and that support will come from Rubio, not Kasich. Kasich gets a small bump from New Hampshire to push him beyond Carson, and filling it out, I think that Trump and Cruz should get on the higher end of their polling, so while averages have Trump at around 32% and Cruz at 18% (Of course depending on what average you’re looking at), I’m predicting, with some confidence, both doing better than that.

  2. Trump 30%
    Rubio 17%
    Cruz 16.5%
    Kasich 15%
    Bush 12%
    Carson 9%
    Others 0.5%

    Clinton 51.5%
    Sanders 48%
    Others 0.5%

  3. SC
    Cruz 28%
    Trump 26%
    Rubio 23%
    Bush 10%
    Kasich 7%
    Carson 4%

    Many polls that show Trump winning by a landslide are using an electorate in which 3/10 of likely voters are independents, and I do not believe that this will be the case. Like in Iowa evangelicals are a huge part of the electorate in SC, in fact in 2012 it was a larger percentage than Iowa was. Cruz also has a strong ground game here. I am going out on the limb here and predicting a Cruz upset.

    NV:
    Clinton 53
    Sanders 46

  4. Nevada
    Hillary – 53
    Sanders – 47

    South Carolina
    Cruz – 27
    Trump – 25
    Rubio – 24.5
    Bush – 10
    Kasich – 9
    Carson – 4.5

    I’m predicting an upset like Iowa was, and i think Bush will be able to capitalize on the network put in place by his brother.

  5. NV: Clinton: 50
    Sanders: 49.

    I’m going to go with my gut and predict a near upset in SC.
    SC: Trump: 28
    Rubio: 25
    Cruz: 22
    Bush: 10:
    Kasich:9
    Carson: 6.

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