South Carolina and Nevada Highscores

Congratulations to everyone who made a prediction!

The work for this is included in the spreadsheet South Carolina Primary and Nevada Caucuses Predictions. If I’ve made any errors or overlooked anything, please let me know!

Highscores, Reps (Actual results: Trump 32.5%, Rubio 22.5%, Cruz 22.3%)

7 people got the correct top 3 in order. The winner was Jonah.

  1. Jonah (30-23-21, ave. % point error 1.43)
  2. Falcon (36-23-21, 1.77)
  3. Toby (32-21-18, 2.1)
  4. DominicBayer (28-25-22, 2.43)
  5. themiddlepolitical (29-21-19, 2.77)
  6. Luki (29-19-18, 3.77)
  7. Jonathan (30-17-16.5, 4.6)

For contrast, Nick Silver (Trump-Rubio-Cruz, 30.5-19.8-19.5, 2.5) would have made the highscore list, and come in 5th, after Jonah, Falcon, Toby, and DominicBayer.

Highscores, Dems (Actual results: Clinton 52.6%, Sanders 47.3%)

17 people called the correct winner. The winners were William and Kevin.

  • 1. William (53-47, 0.35), Kevin (53-47, 0.35)
  • 3. Aaron (52-48, 0.65), Toby (52-48, 0.65), Jesse (52-48, 0.65), Jonah (52-48, 0.65)
  • 7. Kevin (53-46, 0.85)
  • 8. Jonathan (51.5-48, 0.9)
  • 9. Dylan K. (51-49, ave. % point error 1.65), William Tench (51-49, 1.65), Luki (51-49, 1.65), Jacob (51-49, 1.65), Arjav Rawal (51-49, 1.65)
  • 14. Rophil (50-49, 2.15), DominicBayer (50-49, 2.15)
  • 16. Ted (50.4-49.6, 2.25)
  • 17. themiddlepolitical (55-45, 2.35)

For contrast, Nate Silver (52.4-46, 0.75) would have placed 7th here, after William, Kevin, Aaron, Toby, Jesse, and Jonah.

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