12 Responses to Second Super Tuesday Open Thread

  1. Dylan K March 8, 2016 at 12:45 pm #

    Well the only result I’m interested in tonight is… Say it with me everyone: Michigan! I mean, I’ll keep my eyes out for any surprises but really, I think how tonight pans out in Michigan will really set the stage for next week. Especially since Michigan is the only state tonight where we have a good idea how it’s going to come out: Mississippi’s had one poll for Republicans, same for Idaho, and zero for Hawaii, so no one can really challenge expectations there.

    On the Dem’s side really Michigan is far more contested than Mississippi, and really Michigan is one of Sander’s last stands: doesn’t do well there and his chances of winning get even smaller than their already tiny number.

  2. Jesse March 8, 2016 at 5:39 pm #

    I think that Idaho will go to Cruz. Hawaii is difficult because of the lack of polling. Trump probably takes it, but I would not be surprised if it goes a different way. I think Trump takes Mississippi because of his success in the South up to this point(but lack of polling makes it hard to say one way or the other). A win in Mississippi for Cruz would be a huge win over Trump(but I do not see that happening). Trump probably takes Michigan, but I could see an upset there.

  3. Dylan K March 8, 2016 at 10:12 pm #

    Well, the interesting story of the night is the Democratic Michigan Primary; Clinton is currently trailing, though by all estimations some favourable areas for her haven’t come through yet. On the other hand, it still seems like Sanders is well overperforming his polling. Even if you were bullish on him, I don’t think anyone could expect this result.

  4. Jesse March 8, 2016 at 11:35 pm #

    Ya, I am surprised at Sanders’ numbers because of the polls. It looks like he has the win. Mississippi went as I expected(on both sides). Michigan went as I expected(for the Republicans) but I am surprised at the margin of victory for Trump. Currently, Idaho is going how I expected. In the morning, I will see how Hawaii goes(I am not staying up until 1 AM)(That is the hardest to predict because the lack of polling).

  5. Jesse March 9, 2016 at 4:57 pm #

    Last night’s results solidify the status of a two man race. Rubio should get out before Florida. If he gets killed there, it would be terrible for his future in Florida politics. The Michigan results cannot be what Kasich was looking for(third place). That was supposed to be his turf.

  6. Eric March 9, 2016 at 7:08 pm #

    I agree with Jesse. The way I see things, if Rubio drops out before Florida, he’ll run for governor in 2018 (and probably win). Come 2024, he’ll be in great shape to run again, having both foreign policy experience from his time on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and executive experience as governor. He would easily be the frontrunner or perhaps tied with Scott Walker, provided Walker runs for (and wins) Tammy Baldwin’s Senate seat.
    On the other hand, if Rubio stays in, then the best case scenario for him is that he wins Florida then uses his delegate leverage to extract concessions or something along the lines of a Cabinet position, which means he wouldn’t win before 2024 anyway. If Rubio loses Florida, he’s done, possibly permanently.

  7. Jesse March 9, 2016 at 11:05 pm #

    I agree that Rubio has a bright future. Rubio can definitely improve from more experience. The best case in my opinion for Rubio(if he stays in) would be make a deal for VP with Cruz.

  8. jesse March 12, 2016 at 2:37 pm #

    For Wyoming, the early result’s have come in very favorable. With 26% in, Cruz has 64.3%, Rubio has 28%, and Trump has 7.7%. There have also been predictions that Cruz wins DC. This would be a good day for Cruz if he wins both.

  9. jesse March 12, 2016 at 9:16 pm #

    Well, Cruz easily won Wyoming and took most of the delegates. We will have to see what happens in DC.

  10. jesse March 13, 2016 at 10:18 am #

    Rubio gets his third win in DC while Trump and Cruz were shut out of delegates. This, however, probably, will not help with momentum because of the lack of news coverage.

  11. Eric March 13, 2016 at 12:07 pm #

    If anything, T&C could use this as a plus: “Washington hates us because they know we’re going to fire all of them!”

  12. jesse March 13, 2016 at 1:07 pm #

    Ya, it could make Rubio look like too much of an establishment candidate if Trump and Cruz spin it in a good way.

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