I’ve found Scott Adams to be the most prescient commentator I’ve read on the major issue of the campaign up to this point – Donald Trump.
Here Adams lists some of his calls.
Since it’s my job to model elections, and since Trump’s tactics have flummoxed most political experts, it’s obvious that the experts have things wrong. My guess is that Adams is correct that Trump is something like a ‘Master Persuader’.
The question for me is how to add this to the game. I’ve increased his Charisma to 4, and his Spin to 4. On the to-do list is increasing the affects of spinning and interviews in a campaign, since up to now that’s how Trump has operated. I’m also considering implementing a ‘contentious’ variable for speeches and so on, since Trump’s modus operandi seems to be to provoke by ‘speaking in headlines’, as someone put it.
I’m going to look carefully in the next few days at Adams’ analysis, and see if there are other elements I can apply to the game mechanics. What do you all think of his hypotheses?
Similarly, were there other writers who have had a similar track record in predicting what was going to happen in this campaign?
(On a side-note, I am amazed at how little people care about political pundits’ track records. Most get things wrong again and again, yet many people keep listening to their predictions and giving them weight.)