Jan. 1st Republican Primaries Startings %s

Here is what a game looks like starting on Jan. 1st for the Republican primaries right now, using the new polling feature. (Note: this is the latest internal version, it has not been released yet.)


You can ignore the Undecided %s, they aren’t set.

In cases where there is relatively recent (< 1 month old) state polling data, that is used. In other cases, the program uses the candidates’ national %s.

There are a lot of states without any recent public polling data. For example, what looks like a strong band of support for Trump in the deep south is actually an artifact of no polls except for Georgia, so the non-Georgia states are using the national %s.

Campaign designers can input real-world poll data, use aggregates as poll data if they so choose (such as Pollster or RCP) by treating them as a kind of poll, or simply make up their own poll numbers based on a best guess. The above map contains only actual polling data, again with national numbers used where no state numbers are available within 1 month of Jan. 1st. The national numbers are Reuters’, the only one with numbers for the week before Jan. 1st (and not also after that date).


22 thoughts on “Jan. 1st Republican Primaries Startings %s”

  1. @Jonathan,

    Thanks for this – do you means the shades of Trump support? (which is all of them except IA, UT, and CA)

  2. I would swap out the colors of a couple of those top tier candidates for the colors of those at the bottom or those that have dropped out already. Maybe, swap the colors of Carson and Jindal? And then swap Rubio and Rick Perry.

  3. Agree with what others have said re: colors.

    I do feel I won’t be the only one boosting poll numbers for Ted Cruz in the South, based on a “best guess” methodology. Many observers believe he’s ascendant there, and his % in LA/AL/MS/GA would likely be closer to Trump’s numbers than they are nationally.

    Although I’d agree most polls will show Trump leading in TX, for the same reasons he leads almost everywhere, I’d be surprised if Cruz doesn’t win the state when all’s said and done.

    Cruz already has endorsements from 6 of the state’s Republican congressmen, two railroad commissioners, and the lieutenant governor, not to mention a statewide political network that’ll help him turn out TX voters. Factor in a boost from winning Iowa (more likely than not at this point) and it’ll take a lot for someone else to win his home state.

  4. I agree with John Doe, Ted Cruz should be stronger in the South, just behind Trump. When you look to recent polls in some southern states, he always gets more than 20% (Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennesse, Missouri).

    However, Rubio poll numbers should be higher in North-East states, like Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New York, ect… When you look to the most recent polls, he is before Cruz in Vermont (21% to 15%) and Massachusetts (17% to 12%).

    Like Santorum in 2012, Cruz is doing a new coalition with evangelicals and Tea Party libertarians (and so crushing Huckabee, Carson, Paul and Santorum), when Rubio is taking back the moderate voters from Bush, Christie and Kasich. These two candidates are probably going to have a good shot in this election. Rubio will be the establishment guy (a new Romney, or a new McCain), and Cruz the conservative alternative that the grassroots like. I think the game should show their strenghts.

  5. @Rophil,

    My guess is that you’re right about Cruz and Rubio’s levels of support in the deep south and north east respectively.

    Having said that, Georgia’s mid-Dec. Opinion Savvy poll had Cruz at 17% and Trump at 35%.

    The bigger question is how do you guess states with no recent polling data in a fluid race? You could try to find the closest match that does have polling data, or develop a composite based on several other states’.

  6. Ok thanks, I like the idea of develop a composite based on several other states, and I think the game would be more pleasant if each state has its own poll numbers. For example, I think to the 2008 scenario “Wonk edition”. Even states like North Dakota or Rhode Island have their own polls, different than the other places. It is really more enjoyable to me.

    To imagine how to handle with it, I have a suggestion, that maybe is a little audacious: why not base the 2016 polls on 2008 and 2012 primaries/caucuses results? For example, in states Ron Paul had good results (like Alaska and Maine) in 2012, Rand Paul could get a number higher than his national polling, maybe 2 or 3% more according to his father results level. In the same way, more conservative candidates like Cruz or Carson, could get higher poll numbers in states won by Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012 (Alabama, Mississippi, …)

    Of course it just a suggestion, I know it is complicated to satisfy everybody 🙂

    (Sorry for bad English)

  7. @Anthony

    One small suggestion: I’ve always found it a little odd that the Des Moines Register, Bob Vander Plaats, and Steve King are available as endorsers – a decent slate of state-specific figures for Iowa – but the New Hampshire Union Leader isn’t. Would you consider adding the paper?

    If there are any logical choices, I also feel 1-2 more NH endorsers could better reflect the state’s similarities to Iowa as one of the two “traditional” early-voting states. It seems a little strange to go from Iowa, with endorsers like The Family Leader/Americans for Prosperity/Steve King/The DMR to New Hampshire, with nothing beyond the standard “Governor and 2 senators” slate of endorsers.

  8. Is this update going to be released any time soon? I’m kind of impatient to try it out controlling all candidates before the caucuses arrive.

  9. @Anthony

    The other day President Obama wrote an Op-Ed for the New York Times issuing why he believes gun control legislation is right for this nation. And many months back-in July- Donald Trump wrote an Op Ed for USA Today on him ‘not needing to be lectured.” Ben Carson wrote one for the Washington Times.

    I think a great feature for a future update is to include an option to write an Op-Ep. Have the impact of the Op-Ed be determined: by which paper you choose to write it in( Clinton could have a bigger impact in the NYTimes, and Rubio in Wall St Journal); and also how in touch with the issues you are. Even possibly use one of the national insights to give a competitive edge. And to prevent this from becoming where the AI from overusing it, is to only allow the candidates to only write one Op-Ed

  10. @Anthony

    I know this post is about PI rather than Congress Infinity, but I felt it might be better to post on a more recent update. In a game of Congress Infinity (senate 2012), I just got a headline I don’t expect to see in real life if I live to be a million:

    “Jane Sanders campaigns against (DEM)(not on ballot) in Vermont-1”

    Minor – almost insignificant – issue, but I figured I’d bring it to your attention in case it’s a simple fix.

  11. @Dominic,

    I hope the update will be released soon, but there are certain things that have to be done before it’s released. I am aiming for a release within a few days.

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