Hi everyone,
Make your Iowa predictions here – Rep, Dem, or both. I’ll make a ‘highscores’ post on Feb. 2nd.
For Republican predictions, the winner will be whoever gets the top 3 correct (Rep) and among those (if more than one person gets the order right) who has the closest match for %s. For Dems, the winner will be whoever gets 1st correct and among those (if more than one person gets the order right) who has the closest match for %s between the top 2.
Honorable mentions for anyone who gets the top 3 (in order) for Reps or 1st for Dems.
Note: I will be locking the thread at 2PM PST, 5PM EST.
DEM:
Clinton 47%
Sanders 46%
O’Malley 5%
None of the Above 2%
REP:
Cruz 27%
Trump 22%
Rubio 14%
Paul 7%
Bush 6%
Carson 5%
Kasich 5%
Christie 4%
Santorum 3%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina 2%
None of the Above 2%
Dem:
Sanders 48%
Clinton 47%
O’ Malley 4%
Rep:
Trump 26%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 12%
Paul 9%
Bush 8%
Carson 6%
Christie 5%
Kasich 4%
Fiorina 2%
Huckabee 1%
Santorum 1%
Dem:
Clinton: 47%
Sanders: 46%
O’Malley: 5%
Other: 2%
Rep:
Cruz: 27%
Trump: 25%
Rubio: 17%
Carson: 13%
Paul: 10%
Bush: 5%
Christie: 5%
Santorum: 3%
Huckabee: 3%
Kasich: 3%
Fiorina: 2%
Other: 2%
Dems:
Sanders: 46%
Clinton: 44%
O’malley: 6%
Rep:
Cruz:28%
Trump:27%
Rubio:18%
Carson:10%
Huckabee:8%
Paul:7%
Bush:5%
Fiorina:4%
Santorum:3%
Christie:3%
Kasich:3%
Other:2%
Dems-
Clinton 46
Sanders 49
O’Malley 5
Reps-
Trump 35
Cruz 34
Rubio 26
Dems
Clinton 49
Sanders 46
O’Malley 3
GOP
Trump 32
Rubio 23
Cruz 21
Democrats
Clinton /Sanders 48
O’Malley 4
Republicans
Trump 26
Cruz 22
Rubio 13
Paul 11
Carson 8
Bush 6
Huckabee 5
Santorum 4
Christie 2
Fiorina 2
Kasich 1
Gilmore 0
Democrats:
Clinton 48
Sanders 45
O’Malley 5
Republicans:
Trump 28
Cruz 25
Rubio 14
Carson 10
Paul 5
Bush 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 3
Kasich 2
Fiorina 2
Santorum 1
Gilmore 0
Democrats:
Clinton 49%
Sanders 47%
O’Malley 1%*
Other 2%
*I think O’Malley’s numbers are going to be significantly depressed by the fact that candidates with less than 15% of a caucus location’s votes are deemed non-viable.
Republicans.
Cruz 25%
Trump 23%
Rubio 18%
Carson 9%
Huckabee 5%
Paul 4%
Bush 4%
Christie 3%
Kasich 3%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 2%
Gilmore 1%
Other 1%
Democrats:
Clinton – 49
Sanders – 45
O’Malley – 5
Republicans:
Cruz – 24
Rubio – 20
Trump – 19
Carson – 9
Paul – 6
Bush – 5
Trump 30%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 15%
Carson 10%
Paul 7%
Bush 5%
Christie 4%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore 0%
Clinton 48%
Sanders 46%
O’Malley 5%
DEM:
Clinton 53%
Sanders 46%
O’Malley 1%
Republican:
Trump 27%
Cruz 18%
Rubio 18%
Carson 9%
Paul 8%
Bush 7%
Kasich 4%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina 2%
Chirstie 2%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore 1%
I feel the weather will scare off many possible first time caucus goers, so my predictions:
Dem
Clinton 54
Sanders 45
O’Malley 1
Rep
Cruz 30
Rubio 24*
Trump 17
I also feel during the caucus, many establishment supporters will rally behind Rubio to insure he wins the state and prevent a possible Cruz/Trump victory.
I will be locking the thread at 2PM PST, 5PM EST.
I mean, I’m mostly going to be working off of Ann Selzer’s work since… Well she’s the best at it. So, without further ado:
Democrats:
It’s going to be close; after all Clinton’s lead over Sanders according to Selzer is small, 3 points, and that’s exactly as many O’Malley supporters there are. And in places where O’Malley’s supporters don’t meet the threshold (which will be most places honestly), O’Malley voters are more likely to break for Sanders. But Sanders is also relying on an unusual coalition, maybe decreasing turnout. So with that in mind:
Clinton 45%
Sanders 44%
O’Malley 1% (I decided to be generous and think that somewhere at least O’Malley’s gotta get 15%)
Republicans:
Now, I don’t believe in the Rubio surge. Very little suggests that he’s had a strong upward mobility beyond a few points (though I think it’s done enough to avoid a risk of falling to 4th behind Carson, his only threat). Nor do I believe that any consolidation behind him will begin at this point. Further up, I do think that Trump and Cruz are closer than Selzer and other polls may suggest, especially with Cruz’s apparently excellent ground game versus Trump’s abysmal one. On the other hand, the Republican caucus is easier on first time voters, perhaps incentivizing them to come out for Trump. With that in mind:
Trump: 27%
Cruz: 25%
Rubio: 14%
Carson: 11%
Paul: 5%
Christie: 2%
Bush: 2%
Fiorina: 2%
Huckabee: 2%
Kasich: 2%
Santorum: 1%
I really wanted to give Cruz the win, but I’m not sure that I could honestly predict that’s what’s going to happen. I’m slightly more confident of a Trump win.
Rep:
Trump: 25%
Cruz: 22%
Rubio: 20%
Caron: 7%
Huckabee: 5%
Paul:5%
Bush:4%
Santorum:4%
Fiorina: 2%
Christie:2%
Kasich:2%
Other (Gilmore, etc.):2%
Democrat:
Clinton: 48%
Sanders: 47%
O’Malley: 4%
Other: 1%.
DEM:
Clinton: 53%
Sanders: 46%
O’Malley: 1% (If he reaches viability anywhere, much less more that 1-2 precincts, I would be shocked)
GOP:
Trump: 30%
Cruz: 28%
Rubio: 15%
Carson: 7%
Bush: 4%
Paul: 3%
Huckabee: 3%
Christie: 2%
Kasich: 2%
Santorum: 2%
Fiorina: 1%
Mine are purposely bullish for the GOP, but here.
GOP:
Cruz: 33%
Rubio: 22%
Trump: 19%
Bush: 8%
Paul: 6%
Carson: 4%
Christie: 2%
Huckabee: 2%
Kasich: 2%
Fiornia: 1%
Santorum: 1%
Dems:
Clinton: 50%
Sanders: 48%
O’Malley: 2%