The first results from the Senate 2018 campaign, using Congress Infinity‘s sim mode, are in. Note the campaign has not been finalized.
100 runs.
Republican majorities: 97%
Democratic majorities (includes independents who caucus with the Democrats): 1%
Ties: 2%
Which means, since Pence is the tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate, Republicans have an effective majority 99% of the runs.
Overall average seats: Republicans 53.9, Democrats 46.1.
Republicans gained a super-majority (60 or more seats) 1% of the time, at 60 seats.
The Democrats’ best result was 51 seats, again 1% of the time.
You can see the starting map for the Senate 2018 campaign here
https://270soft.com/2018/03/02/senate-2018-campaign-first-look/
Will there be a feature to see how the states voted? Curious if it was either Nevada or Arizona that flipped.
@Dylan, you’re right, it would be nice to have more details on the results. We’ll see.
The simulation mode seems to be calculated differently from normal campaigns. In particular, I think ballot access is completely ignored, because my Observer candidate with no ballot access often ends up polling large shares of the vote.
@SirLagsalott,
Got it – I’ll look into that.