First results from Senate 2018 campaign sim

The first results from the Senate 2018 campaign, using Congress Infinity‘s sim mode, are in. Note the campaign has not been finalized.

100 runs.

Republican majorities: 97%

Democratic majorities (includes independents who caucus with the Democrats): 1%

Ties: 2%

Which means, since Pence is the tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate, Republicans have an effective majority 99% of the runs.

Overall average seats: Republicans 53.9, Democrats 46.1.

Republicans gained a super-majority (60 or more seats) 1% of the time, at 60 seats.

The Democrats’ best result was 51 seats, again 1% of the time.

5 thoughts on “First results from Senate 2018 campaign sim”

  1. Will there be a feature to see how the states voted? Curious if it was either Nevada or Arizona that flipped.

  2. @Dylan, you’re right, it would be nice to have more details on the results. We’ll see.

  3. The simulation mode seems to be calculated differently from normal campaigns. In particular, I think ballot access is completely ignored, because my Observer candidate with no ballot access often ends up polling large shares of the vote.

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