Democrats face a tough climb to 218 seats in House 2018 election

In 2016, Republicans won 1.1% more of the vote in House elections than Democrats (49.1% to 48%).

As you would expect, because they won a majority of the two party vote, Republicans won a majority of seats. The 2016 House elections results were 241 Republican to 194 seats.

Typically, in the House the incumbent party does worse in the mid-terms than in the Presidential cycle. So, if Democrats win a majority of the vote in the House elections, will they win a majority of seats?

If it’s by a small margin, almost certainly not.

Here, you can see what happens if you apply a universal percentage point shift in favor of Democrats, using the 2016 results as a starting point, such that the Democrats win the vote by about 10 percentage points – more precisely, if they increase their percentage by 6.5 percentage points compared to the 2016 results, such that they get about 56% of the two party vote instead of the 49.4% of the two party vote they got in 2016.

It is only at this point that the seats are almost even. Even here, though, Republicans hold a slight advantage in seats. So, applying a straightforward, universal shift in percentages, the Democrats need to do even better than this to win the House.

So, although polling gives a strong advantage to Democrats right now on the national level for the House, if that holds, it still might not mean a majority of seats for Democrats.

(I should note The Economist has a similar conclusion, although they give a more modest 53.5% of the two party vote the Democrats have to win before they are likely to win the majority of seats, and with recent polling, giving the Republicans a 30% chance of holding the House.)

I have noted how difficult the terrain is for Democrats in the Senate here. For the Senate, Democrats have to win approximately 100% of competitive seats with Republican incumbents, and lose 0% of their own, to take a working majority in the Senate.

So, although the best way to put a brake on Trump’s executive agenda for the Democrats would be to win either the Senate or House, the Democrats have structural challenges inherent in both of those this cycle.

My guess is that winning the House is more plausible, and Democrats should focus more of their efforts there. The problem, of course, is that means focusing on a lot more of individual elections.

President Infinity v. 2.8.2 released!

President Infinity v. 2.8.2 for Windows and Mac has been released!

This update includes

  • Florida – 2018 – Senatorial (direct popular vote)
  • updates to computer AI, including for direct popular vote
  • updates the Surrogate Screen, including pictures for surrogates (where supported by a campaign, included in Florida – 2018 – Senatorial)
  • adds an option in the Editor for Vice-Leaders to be optional
  • fixes various bugs
  • and more

(Note: for goals for the next release cycle, Autumn 2018, see here.)

If you are a President Infinity owner, you are eligible for this upgrade.

This is a comprehensive update.

You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

https://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/president-infinity-version-information/

What’s new in this upgrade

  • Surrogates > can add images, similar to candidates
  • Surrogates > Main Screen > name under portrait > if name too long, shows just last name
  • Main Screen > Activities > fixed bug where could continue using surrogate after used all Surrogate Points
  • new Create Surrogate Screen
  • Editor > Regions > Issues > Profiles > ‘Set All’ button visible regardless of region
  • fixed bug in function to determine where loss of support would go to after platform change
  • Editor > Regions > Map > can right click to set abbreviation coordinates
  • Editor > Regions > if edit id, checks if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Editor > Regions > Map > fixed tab ordering
  • Editor > Regions > if change region abbreviation and then go to map, abbreviation updated
  • Editor > Leaders > if edit id, check if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Editor > Regions > Map > can show all abbreviations
  • Editor > Issues > if edit id, checks if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Select Leader Screen > if only 1 leader, Change Leader button disabled
  • Editor > can set credits, button appears on Select Campaign Screen if set
  • Editor > Basics > More > can set Elected Leader Position (ex. “Prime Minister”), Institution (ex. “Parliament”), Appointed by (ex. “Governor General”)
  • added Florida – 2018 – Senatorial campaign
  • Editor > can set whether vice-leaders enabled
  • 2016 > Trump > Strategic 2 -> 3 primaries, 4 -> 5 general election
  • Strategy Screen > Primaries > fixed bug where player other than turn player’s selected by default
  • Editor > Regions > Parties > if editing %s but have Editor > Polling > Use Polls on, text indicates using polling
  • primaries > fixed bug where computer players wouldn’t withdraw or endorse other computer players
  • Players Info Screen > fixed bug if starting in primaries and get to only 1 leader left in party
  • Offers > fixed bug where didn’t get bonus to chance accept when offered VP slot
  • Offers > fixed some bugs with making offers that didn’t make sense (ex. offer to withdraw and offer them a VP slot)
  • Offers > improved computer players chance accept for some offers
  • Editor > Regions > Issues > added ‘Set All Issues’ button, to set all issues for a region to specified center
  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Surrogates > added Tom Perez’s image
  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Nelson > Charisma > 3 -> 2
  • Editor > Basics > Constants and Coefficients > added Fundraising coefficient
  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Funds > Nelson $15 M -> $30 M, Scott $10 M -> $25 M
  • fixed bug with starting funds in certain situations
  • computer players now make more ads
  • Direct pop. vote > improved computer player strategy
  • Sim > Direct pop. vote > fixed bug where %s and wins (and vote count) weren’t in sync
  • fixed bug if saved, then loaded, then tried to save again

 

President Infinity next release sneak-peek v. 2.8.1, Windows and Mac

From the previous sneak-peek, this update improves computer player strategies for direct popular vote, improves computer players for making ads, fixes a bug with saving-loading-saving, fixes a bug with starting funds in certain situations, makes a few modifications to Florida – 2018 – Senatorial, fixes a bug with Sim mode and direct pop. vote, and adds a Fundraising coefficient to the Editor.

You can download it by clicking the button below for Windows.

For Mac.

Note: Requires you already have the game installed.

Feedback welcome!

New since previous release

  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Surrogates > added Tom Perez’s image
  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Nelson > Charisma > 3 -> 2
  • Editor > Basics > Constants and Coefficients > added Fundraising coefficient
  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Funds > Nelson $15 M -> $30 M, Scott $10 M -> $25 M
  • fixed bug with starting funds in certain situations
  • computer players now make more ads
  • Direct pop. vote > improved computer player strategy
  • Sim > Direct pop. vote > fixed bug where %s and wins (and vote count) weren’t in sync
  • fixed bug if saved, then loaded, then tried to save again
  • Editor > Regions > Basics > General Election > can’t set Pop. Vote to on if primaries on

Previous sneak-peek release

  • Surrogates > can add images, similar to candidates
  • Surrogates > Main Screen > name under portrait > if name too long, shows just last name
  • Main Screen > Activities > fixed bug where could continue using surrogate after used all Surrogate Points
  • new Create Surrogate Screen
  • Editor > Regions > Issues > Profiles > ‘Set All’ button visible regardless of region
  • fixed bug in function to determine where loss of support would go to after platform change
  • Editor > Regions > Map > can right click to set abbreviation coordinates
  • Editor > Regions > if edit id, checks if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Editor > Regions > Map > fixed tab ordering
  • Editor > Regions > if change region abbreviation and then go to map, abbreviation updated
  • Editor > Leaders > if edit id, check if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Editor > Regions > Map > can show all abbreviations
  • Editor > Issues > if edit id, checks if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Select Leader Screen > if only 1 leader, Change Leader button disabled
  • Editor > can set credits, button appears on Select Campaign Screen if set
  • Editor > Basics > More > can set Elected Leader Position (ex. “Prime Minister”), Institution (ex. “Parliament”), Appointed by (ex. “Governor General”)
  • added Florida – 2018 – Senatorial campaign
  • Editor > can set whether vice-leaders enabled
  • 2016 > Trump > Strategic 2 -> 3 primaries, 4 -> 5 general election
  • Strategy Screen > Primaries > fixed bug where player other than turn player’s selected by default
  • Editor > Regions > Parties > if editing %s but have Editor > Polling > Use Polls on, text indicates using polling
  • primaries > fixed bug where computer players wouldn’t withdraw or endorse other computer players
  • Players Info Screen > fixed bug if starting in primaries and get to only 1 leader left in party
  • Offers > fixed bug where didn’t get bonus to chance accept when offered VP slot
  • Offers > fixed some bugs with making offers that didn’t make sense (ex. offer to withdraw and offer them a VP slot)
  • Offers > improved computer players chance accept for some offers
  • Editor > Regions > Issues > added ‘Set All Issues’ button, to set all issues for a region to specified center