Senate and House 2018 Predictions Contest Summary

Here are the predictions for Senate, listed from highest for R to highest for D.

  • 58R (Themiddlepolitical)
  • 58R (Kevin Aldrich)
  • 55R (Chris)
  • 55R (Lee Haiko)
  • 54R (admin)
  • 54R (Nathan)
  • 54R (Conservative Elector 2)
  • 54R (Jacob Berg)
  • 53R (NathanF)
  • 53R (Red Bear)
  • 52R (CalebsParadox)
  • 52R (Raphael)
  • 52R (Yorni)
  • 51R (Jonathan)
  • 51R (Hestia11)
  • 51R (Jeff Alan Vasconellas)
  • 51R (Harris/Ernst2020)
  • 50R (SirLagsalott)
  • 50R (Avatarmushi)
  • 50R (DylanS)
  • 50R (Jonah Ortiz)
  • 51D (Theliberalkitten)
  • 51D (John)
  • 52D (SystematicPollingError)

Here are the predictions for the House, listed from highest for D to highest for R.

  • D+41 (SystematicPollingError)
  • D+40 (Harris/Ernst2020)
  • D+39 (Avatarmushi)
  • D+39 (Dylan S)
  • D+35 (Jonah Ortiz)
  • D+33 (Hestia11)
  • D+25 (Theliberalkitten)
  • D+23 (Sirlagsalott)
  • D+20 (John)
  • D+19 (Jeff Alan Vasconcellos)
  • D+19 (Raphael)
  • D+16 (Yorni)
  • D+13 (CalebsParadox)
  • D+7 (NathanF)
  • D+5 (Nathan)
  • D+4 (Jonathan)
  • R+2 (Lee Haiko)
  • R+2 (Red Bear)
  • R+3 (Chris)
  • R+3 (Jacob Berg)
  • R+5 (admin)
  • R+5 (TheMiddlePolitical)
  • R+11 (Conservative Elector 2)
  • R+25 (Kevin Aldrich)

If I’ve made a mistake somewhere, please let me know!

The most bullish for Dems is SystematicPollingError (52D, D+41), while most bullish for Reps is Kevin Aldrich (58R, R+25).

The median value for the Senate is 52R. The median value for the House is D+14.5.

The average value for the Senate is 52.25R. The average value for the House is D+13.42.

 

9 thoughts on “Senate and House 2018 Predictions Contest Summary

  1. @anthony

    I think the median and average values are very likely as well. I feel like I was one of the few people that didn’t base my prediction on what I want to have happen or what I hope happens. Most people seem to veer far left or right of what most analysts are saying. 2016 did show they can be wrong, but I bet this one will be a little closer to the analysts, since one has to assume the pollsters have made some adjustments and learned some lessons for their flops in 2016, unless it was really Russian involvement that made accurate polling impossible.

  2. Things have also gotten more complex with early voting. For example, in AZ supposedly about 75% of voters are expected to vote early! So you have to look at polls over the relevant time period, and try to compare that to who was voting at that point in time.

  3. One nice thing about the Favorability feature is that it involves replacing the electorate model with something that allows for tracking early voting more easily.

  4. @anthony

    That’s cool about the favorability model.

    Early voting among youth (18-29) is up 500% in Texas and Georgia. I still think Cruz is more likely to win, but if an upset occurs, it’s because the polls don’t take much of this 500% into account.

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