House Predictions Contest Results

I am calling the final mid-term House results as D+35 (235D-200R), even though North Carolina-9 is still unresolved.

The entire predictions are here.

D+35

The winner for House results is …

Jonah Ortiz (D+35)

Runner-up is (missed by 1 swing seat)

Hestia-11 (D+33)

Honorable mention goes to (missed by 2 swing seats) …

Avatarmushi (D+39) and DylanS (D+39)

Good work everyone! Nota bene: Jonah Ortiz and Hestia-11 did better or equal to 538 on the House predictions, where 538 forecast D+33 (234D-201R).

Points are +10 for correctly predicting which party would have control of the House, and -0.1 point for each 2 House seats from the result. A post combining House and Senate predictions will be added.

  • D+41 (SystematicPollingError) +10 – 0.3 = 9.7
  • D+40 (Harris/Ernst2020) +10 – 0.25 = 9.75
  • D+39 (Avatarmushi) +10 – 0.2 = 9.8
  • D+39 (Dylan S) +10 – 0.2 = 9.8
  • D+35 (Jonah Ortiz) +10 – 0 = 10
  • D+33 (Hestia11) +10 – 0.1 = 9.9
  • D+25 (Theliberalkitten) +10 – 0.5 = 9.5
  • D+23 (Sirlagsalott) +10 – 0.6 = 9.4
  • D+20 (John) +10 – 0.75 = 9.25
  • D+19 (Jeff Alan Vasconcellos) +10 – 0.8 = 9.2
  • D+19 (Raphael) +10 – 0.8 = 9.2
  • D+16 (Yorni) +10 – 0.95 = 9.05
  • D+13 (CalebsParadox) +10 – 1.1 = 8.9
  • D+7 (NathanF) +10 – 1.4 = 8.6
  • D+5 (Nathan) +10 – 1.5 = 8.5
  • D+4 (Jonathan) +10 – 1.55 = 8.45
  • R+2 (Lee Haiko) +0 – 1.85 = -1.85
  • R+2 (Red Bear) +0 – 1.85 = -1.85
  • R+3 (Chris) +0 – 1.9 = -1.9
  • R+3 (Jacob Berg) +0 – 1.9 = -1.9
  • R+5 (admin) +0 – 2 = -2
  • R+5 (TheMiddlePolitical) +0 – 2 = -2
  • R+11 (Conservative Elector 2) +0 – 2.3 = -2.3
  • R+25 (Kevin Aldrich) +0 – 3 = -3

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