Green party prospects

The Green party won 1 seat in the last Canadian federal election. They then won another seat in a by-election this year. They then had a sitting MP cross to the Green party, bringing their total in the current Parliament to 3.

What are their prospects for the upcoming election? This is how things look right now in the latest internal official Canada 2019 campaign.

You can see that they’re leading in 5 ridings. You can also see their riding strength is concentrated in B.C. (where they already have 2 ridings) and P.E.I. (where they almost won the Premiership recently).

(Note these numbers don’t account for the recent new MP in Quebec, which could make them competitive in another seat.)

If the Greens run a good campaign, given these numbers, it seems they could win double-digit seats in 2019.

13 thoughts on “Green party prospects”

  1. Looks good! Maybe the Greens might even be kingmaker in the next Parliament, although i predict a Liberal majority in the real election.

  2. @TLK “Maybe the Greens might even be kingmaker in the next Parliament”

    They were the King-makers in B.C. in the recent provincial election. Who knows?

  3. That’s true. A lot of young people have been looking at the Greens as an alternative to Liberals and Conservatives as they both have baggage.
    The Liberals have the recent Ethics scandal to their name, and the Conservatives have Doug Ford who’s really hurt their prospects in Ontario.
    But if the Greens do really well, it’ll be very interested to see what happens.
    How’s the NDP doing in the scenario are they losing seats compared to 2015?

  4. Oh the NDP is in bad shape right now. We’ll see if they can turn things around (doubtful but you never know) or lose even more seats (probably might happen).
    It looks like it’ll be a very fun scenario to play around with!

  5. The Greens have had defectors before. First there was Blair Wilson in West Vancouver in 2008, but he didn’t then submit himself for re-election. Later you had Bruce Hyer in Thunder Bay who became the federal party’s deputy leader (and is the reason that his old riding is so high up the target list in the screenshot). Apart from that there were two no-hopers in Québec on the eve of the 2015 election who were on a hiding to nothing anyway as NDP candidates. The latest defection has similar circumstances, and looks as if it’ll be about as effective.

    The Greens had also had decent shares of the vote at by-elections in the previous Parliament (Calgary Centre, AB and Victoria, BC both in November 2012), but those proved to be false dawns. Actually winning one recently must certainly count as a breakthrough.

    The only other things to note is that the climate crisis is getting a lot more headlines, so the message could be getting through that action is clearly more urgent than ever, and that the Liberals have proved they can’t be trusted on electoral reform.

  6. The Green numbers in Victoria are a bit high imo. Last mainstreet poll had them at 20% with the NDP at 18%. They’re probably ahead, but that margin is way too high.

  7. @Oliver,

    Ya, could be a false dawn, we shall see. Like you say, climate alarmism seems to have gained traction in the last few years, so perhaps this time it will be real.

  8. @Ed,

    Thanks for that. Yes, it looks like the Greens are too strong in the Victoria riding. Wish they had a link to actual detailed poll results in the article. Can’t find it on the Mainstreet Research site either.

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