Senate Predictions Contest Results

We are still awaiting 2 House races to be decided. In the meantime, we now have the final mid-term Senate results. The entire predictions are here.

53R-47D

The winners for Senate results are …

NathanF (53R-47D) and Red Bear (53R-47D)!

Honorable mention goes to (missed by 1 swing seat) …

admin, Nathan, Conservative Elector 2, Jacob Berg, CalebsParadox, Raphael, and Yorni.

Good work everyone! Nota bene: everyone listed above did better or equal to 538 on the Senate predictions, where 538 forecast 52R-48D (or 51.5R-48.5D without rounding).

Points are +10 for correctly predicting which party would have control of the Senate, and -1 point for each 2 Senate seats from the result. House results will be added to these once they are available.

  • 58R (Themiddlepolitical) +10 – 5 = 5
  • 58R (Kevin Aldrich) +10 – 5 = 5
  • 55R (Chris) +10 – 2 = 8
  • 55R (Lee Haiko) +10 – 2 = 8
  • 54R (admin) +10 – 1 = 9
  • 54R (Nathan) +10 – 1 = 9
  • 54R (Conservative Elector 2) +10 – 1 = 9
  • 54R (Jacob Berg) +10 – 1 = 9
  • 53R (NathanF) +10 – 0 = 10
  • 53R (Red Bear) +10 – 0 = 10
  • 52R (CalebsParadox) +10 – 1 = 9
  • 52R (Raphael) +10 – 1 = 9
  • 52R (Yorni) +10 – 1 = 9
  • 51R (Jonathan) +10 – 2 = 8
  • 51R (Hestia11) +10 – 2 = 8
  • 51R (Jeff Alan Vasconellas) +10 – 2 = 8
  • 51R (Harris/Ernst2020) +10 – 2 = 8
  • 50R (SirLagsalott) +10 – 3 = 7
  • 50R (Avatarmushi) +10 – 3 = 7
  • 50R (DylanS) +10 – 3 = 7
  • 50R (Jonah Ortiz) +10 – 3 = 7
  • 51D (Theliberalkitten) +0 – 4 = 4
  • 51D (John) +0 – 4 = 4
  • 52D (SystematicPollingError) +0 – 4 = 4

 

Favorability feature sneak-peek

The Favorability feature for President Infinity is coming along. Here you can see how Romney’s Favorability scores in 2012 for Utah vs. Washington, D.C. are distributed vs. % of eligible voter.

These numbers were generated from the existing 2012 campaign, using only the percentages data available. Although the algorithm for doing this is still in early stages, they still look generally reasonable at this point. You can also see the overall Favorability rating in the top right.

The electorate is now modeled with ‘persons’ who in turn represent 1/10,000th of the eligible voters. This means the electorate is modeled to 0.01 of a % (1/100th of 1%). This is a huge change from the previous game engine, which only had basically 4 numbers for each candidate (% committed, % leaning, % undecided, and % alienated), and involved simply adding or subtracting numbers from those categories based on momentum.

Each of these ‘persons’ in the new game engine has Favorability ratings for each candidate, and the %s are then generated by adding up each ‘person’s’ first place candidate. Favorability in the game is a bit different from how the word is usually defined in real life. In the game, it means just how much a person prefers a given candidate. So, whichever candidate has a higher Favorability score gets that person’s vote, unless it falls below a certain threshold, in which case they become alienated.

The strength of this approach is in more realistically modeling electoral dynamics, such as sudden collapses or meteoric rises, independents choosing between parties based on the eventual nominees, and so on. It also brings the game engine a big step closer to allowing electoral blocs.

Feedback welcome!

Congress Infinity v. 2.9.2 released!

Congress Infinity v. 2.9.2 for Windows and Mac has been released!

This update fixes a scandals bug, and adds a temporary file when saving.

(Note: for goals for this release cycle, Autumn 2018, see here.)

If you are a Congress Infinity owner on subscription (or if you purchased Congress Infinity within the last year), you are eligible for this upgrade.

This is a comprehensive update.

You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

https://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/congress-infinity-version-information/

What’s new in this upgrade

  • fixed scandals bug which caused computer players to release unfinished scandals
  • for save (including autosave), a temporary save file is created first, so if there is an error for some reason, any existing save file is not overwritten

President Infinity next release sneak-peek v. 2.9.1, Windows only

President Infinity v. 2.9.1 sneak-peek for Windows has been released! (Mac coming soon.)

This sneak-peek adds the 0-10 attributes system, map info when move mouse, and more.

v. 2.9.1 also fixes a scandals bug from v. 2.9.0.

(Note: for goals for this release cycle, Autumn 2018, see here.)

Note that the above image is to display the 0-10 attributes system – 2020 is not included yet in President Infinity.

If you are a President Infinity owner on subscription (or if you purchased President Infinity within the last year), you are eligible for this upgrade.

This is a comprehensive update.

You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below. From the e-mail, click the link to the web page. On the web-page, there will be a ‘Sneak-peek’ link.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

https://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/president-infinity-version-information/

What’s new in this upgrade from the previous sneak-peek.

  • 1-5 -> 0-10 attributes system
  • if move mouse across map, will show info for region mouse on
  • allows for increasing the size of windows (for high-resolution or high-DPI displays)
  • Editor > Regions > fundamental regions > added exemptions for shifts, for regions where you want to specify %s without the shifts
  • Editor > Basics > More > can set tied color
  • if move window, windows opened from it will center within it
  • Electoral Vote Info Screen (Constituency Screen) > if hover over Create Target, Org. Strength, Footsoldiers, Polling button, info
  • Create Polling > 1 CP total -> 0.5 CPs per day
  • Create Org. Strength > 2 CPs total -> 0.5 CPs per day
  • Sim Screen > fixed bug where win wasn’t counted if won seats but not popular vote
  • Editor > Surrogate > if has images, can set to default
  • v. 2.9.1 fixes a scandals bug

President Infinity next release sneak-peek v. 2.9.0, Windows only

President Infinity v. 2.9.0 sneak-peek for Windows has been released! (Mac coming soon.)

This sneak-peek adds the 0-10 attributes system, map info when move mouse, and more.

(Note: for goals for this release cycle, Autumn 2018, see here.)

Note that the above image is to display the 0-10 attributes system – 2020 is not included yet in President Infinity.

If you are a President Infinity owner on subscription (or if you purchased President Infinity within the last year), you are eligible for this upgrade.

This is a comprehensive update.

You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below. From the e-mail, click the link to the web page. On the web-page, there will be a ‘Sneak-peek’ link.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

https://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/president-infinity-version-information/

What’s new in this upgrade from the previous sneak-peek.

  • 1-5 -> 0-10 attributes system
  • if move mouse across map, will show info for region mouse on
  • allows for increasing the size of windows (for high-resolution or high-DPI displays)
  • Editor > Regions > fundamental regions > added exemptions for shifts, for regions where you want to specify %s without the shifts
  • Editor > Basics > More > can set tied color
  • if move window, windows opened from it will center within it
  • Electoral Vote Info Screen (Constituency Screen) > if hover over Create Target, Org. Strength, Footsoldiers, Polling button, info
  • Create Polling > 1 CP total -> 0.5 CPs per day
  • Create Org. Strength > 2 CPs total -> 0.5 CPs per day
  • Sim Screen > fixed bug where win wasn’t counted if won seats but not popular vote
  • Editor > Surrogate > if has images, can set to default

Congress Infinity v. 2.9.0 released!

Congress Infinity v. 2.9.0 for Windows and Mac has been released!

This updates the House – 2018 campaign to bring it in line with the Senate – 2018 campaign, adds an official Senate – 2010 campaign, and allows for campaign designers to set surrogate images to the default. It also fixes a bug with scandals in v. 2.8.9.

(Note: for goals for this release cycle, Autumn 2018, see here.)

If you are a Congress Infinity owner on subscription (or if you purchased Congress Infinity within the last year), you are eligible for this upgrade.

This is a comprehensive update.

You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

https://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/congress-infinity-version-information/

What’s new in this upgrade

  • House 2018 > Surrogates > updated to largely match Senate – 2018
  • House 2018 > Issues > added ‘Supreme Court Nomination’
  • House 2018 > Events > updated to match Senate – 2018
  • added Senate – 2010
  • Editor > Surrogate > if has images, can set to default
  • fixes scandal bug from v. 2.8.9 (scandals were too likely to be created)

Congress Infinity v. 2.8.9 released!

Congress Infinity v. 2.8.9 for Windows and Mac has been released!

This updates the House – 2018 campaign to bring it in line with the Senate – 2018 campaign, adds an official Senate – 2010 campaign, and allows for campaign designers to set surrogate images to the default.

(Note: for goals for this release cycle, Autumn 2018, see here.)

If you are a Congress Infinity owner on subscription (or if you purchased Congress Infinity within the last year), you are eligible for this upgrade.

This is a comprehensive update.

You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

https://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/congress-infinity-version-information/

What’s new in this upgrade

  • House 2018 > Surrogates > updated to largely match Senate – 2018
  • House 2018 > Issues > added ‘Supreme Court Nomination’
  • House 2018 > Events > updated to match Senate – 2018
  • added Senate – 2010
  • Editor > Surrogate > if has images, can set to default

Focus going forward

What an epic couple of days!

The focus for the next while will be on

  1. Finishing up the Congress Infinity update.
  2. Releasing President Infinity with the features in Congress Infinity (in particular, the 0-10 attributes system).
  3. Releasing President Infinity with Favorability.

This will probably take us to the end of November, and then updates to Prime Minister Infinity will happen incorporating those changes.

Thanks everyone for your feedback and support!