Democrats face a tough climb to 218 seats in House 2018 election

In 2016, Republicans won 1.1% more of the vote in House elections than Democrats (49.1% to 48%).

As you would expect, because they won a majority of the two party vote, Republicans won a majority of seats. The 2016 House elections results were 241 Republican to 194 seats.

Typically, in the House the incumbent party does worse in the mid-terms than in the Presidential cycle. So, if Democrats win a majority of the vote in the House elections, will they win a majority of seats?

If it’s by a small margin, almost certainly not.

Here, you can see what happens if you apply a universal percentage point shift in favor of Democrats, using the 2016 results as a starting point, such that the Democrats win the vote by about 10 percentage points – more precisely, if they increase their percentage by 6.5 percentage points compared to the 2016 results, such that they get about 56% of the two party vote instead of the 49.4% of the two party vote they got in 2016.

It is only at this point that the seats are almost even. Even here, though, Republicans hold a slight advantage in seats. So, applying a straightforward, universal shift in percentages, the Democrats need to do even better than this to win the House.

So, although polling gives a strong advantage to Democrats right now on the national level for the House, if that holds, it still might not mean a majority of seats for Democrats.

(I should note The Economist has a similar conclusion, although they give a more modest 53.5% of the two party vote the Democrats have to win before they are likely to win the majority of seats, and with recent polling, giving the Republicans a 30% chance of holding the House.)

I have noted how difficult the terrain is for Democrats in the Senate here. For the Senate, Democrats have to win approximately 100% of competitive seats with Republican incumbents, and lose 0% of their own, to take a working majority in the Senate.

So, although the best way to put a brake on Trump’s executive agenda for the Democrats would be to win either the Senate or House, the Democrats have structural challenges inherent in both of those this cycle.

My guess is that winning the House is more plausible, and Democrats should focus more of their efforts there. The problem, of course, is that means focusing on a lot more of individual elections.

President Infinity v. 2.8.2 released!

President Infinity v. 2.8.2 for Windows and Mac has been released!

This update includes

  • Florida – 2018 – Senatorial (direct popular vote)
  • updates to computer AI, including for direct popular vote
  • updates the Surrogate Screen, including pictures for surrogates (where supported by a campaign, included in Florida – 2018 – Senatorial)
  • adds an option in the Editor for Vice-Leaders to be optional
  • fixes various bugs
  • and more

(Note: for goals for the next release cycle, Autumn 2018, see here.)

If you are a President Infinity owner, you are eligible for this upgrade.

This is a comprehensive update.

You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

https://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/president-infinity-version-information/

What’s new in this upgrade

  • Surrogates > can add images, similar to candidates
  • Surrogates > Main Screen > name under portrait > if name too long, shows just last name
  • Main Screen > Activities > fixed bug where could continue using surrogate after used all Surrogate Points
  • new Create Surrogate Screen
  • Editor > Regions > Issues > Profiles > ‘Set All’ button visible regardless of region
  • fixed bug in function to determine where loss of support would go to after platform change
  • Editor > Regions > Map > can right click to set abbreviation coordinates
  • Editor > Regions > if edit id, checks if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Editor > Regions > Map > fixed tab ordering
  • Editor > Regions > if change region abbreviation and then go to map, abbreviation updated
  • Editor > Leaders > if edit id, check if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Editor > Regions > Map > can show all abbreviations
  • Editor > Issues > if edit id, checks if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Select Leader Screen > if only 1 leader, Change Leader button disabled
  • Editor > can set credits, button appears on Select Campaign Screen if set
  • Editor > Basics > More > can set Elected Leader Position (ex. “Prime Minister”), Institution (ex. “Parliament”), Appointed by (ex. “Governor General”)
  • added Florida – 2018 – Senatorial campaign
  • Editor > can set whether vice-leaders enabled
  • 2016 > Trump > Strategic 2 -> 3 primaries, 4 -> 5 general election
  • Strategy Screen > Primaries > fixed bug where player other than turn player’s selected by default
  • Editor > Regions > Parties > if editing %s but have Editor > Polling > Use Polls on, text indicates using polling
  • primaries > fixed bug where computer players wouldn’t withdraw or endorse other computer players
  • Players Info Screen > fixed bug if starting in primaries and get to only 1 leader left in party
  • Offers > fixed bug where didn’t get bonus to chance accept when offered VP slot
  • Offers > fixed some bugs with making offers that didn’t make sense (ex. offer to withdraw and offer them a VP slot)
  • Offers > improved computer players chance accept for some offers
  • Editor > Regions > Issues > added ‘Set All Issues’ button, to set all issues for a region to specified center
  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Surrogates > added Tom Perez’s image
  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Nelson > Charisma > 3 -> 2
  • Editor > Basics > Constants and Coefficients > added Fundraising coefficient
  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Funds > Nelson $15 M -> $30 M, Scott $10 M -> $25 M
  • fixed bug with starting funds in certain situations
  • computer players now make more ads
  • Direct pop. vote > improved computer player strategy
  • Sim > Direct pop. vote > fixed bug where %s and wins (and vote count) weren’t in sync
  • fixed bug if saved, then loaded, then tried to save again

 

President Infinity next release sneak-peek v. 2.8.1, Windows and Mac

From the previous sneak-peek, this update improves computer player strategies for direct popular vote, improves computer players for making ads, fixes a bug with saving-loading-saving, fixes a bug with starting funds in certain situations, makes a few modifications to Florida – 2018 – Senatorial, fixes a bug with Sim mode and direct pop. vote, and adds a Fundraising coefficient to the Editor.

You can download it by clicking the button below for Windows.

For Mac.

Note: Requires you already have the game installed.

Feedback welcome!

New since previous release

  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Surrogates > added Tom Perez’s image
  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Nelson > Charisma > 3 -> 2
  • Editor > Basics > Constants and Coefficients > added Fundraising coefficient
  • Florida 2018 Senatorial > Funds > Nelson $15 M -> $30 M, Scott $10 M -> $25 M
  • fixed bug with starting funds in certain situations
  • computer players now make more ads
  • Direct pop. vote > improved computer player strategy
  • Sim > Direct pop. vote > fixed bug where %s and wins (and vote count) weren’t in sync
  • fixed bug if saved, then loaded, then tried to save again
  • Editor > Regions > Basics > General Election > can’t set Pop. Vote to on if primaries on

Previous sneak-peek release

  • Surrogates > can add images, similar to candidates
  • Surrogates > Main Screen > name under portrait > if name too long, shows just last name
  • Main Screen > Activities > fixed bug where could continue using surrogate after used all Surrogate Points
  • new Create Surrogate Screen
  • Editor > Regions > Issues > Profiles > ‘Set All’ button visible regardless of region
  • fixed bug in function to determine where loss of support would go to after platform change
  • Editor > Regions > Map > can right click to set abbreviation coordinates
  • Editor > Regions > if edit id, checks if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Editor > Regions > Map > fixed tab ordering
  • Editor > Regions > if change region abbreviation and then go to map, abbreviation updated
  • Editor > Leaders > if edit id, check if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Editor > Regions > Map > can show all abbreviations
  • Editor > Issues > if edit id, checks if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Select Leader Screen > if only 1 leader, Change Leader button disabled
  • Editor > can set credits, button appears on Select Campaign Screen if set
  • Editor > Basics > More > can set Elected Leader Position (ex. “Prime Minister”), Institution (ex. “Parliament”), Appointed by (ex. “Governor General”)
  • added Florida – 2018 – Senatorial campaign
  • Editor > can set whether vice-leaders enabled
  • 2016 > Trump > Strategic 2 -> 3 primaries, 4 -> 5 general election
  • Strategy Screen > Primaries > fixed bug where player other than turn player’s selected by default
  • Editor > Regions > Parties > if editing %s but have Editor > Polling > Use Polls on, text indicates using polling
  • primaries > fixed bug where computer players wouldn’t withdraw or endorse other computer players
  • Players Info Screen > fixed bug if starting in primaries and get to only 1 leader left in party
  • Offers > fixed bug where didn’t get bonus to chance accept when offered VP slot
  • Offers > fixed some bugs with making offers that didn’t make sense (ex. offer to withdraw and offer them a VP slot)
  • Offers > improved computer players chance accept for some offers
  • Editor > Regions > Issues > added ‘Set All Issues’ button, to set all issues for a region to specified center

 

Listen to the other side, people

“If you see anybody from that Cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a crowd and you push back on them, and you tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere.” – Maxine Waters

This is very dangerous rhetoric – she’s calling for mobs to harass Cabinet members. What if Republican mobs start harassing Maxine Waters every time she shows up in public? How is this all going to work out?

The current polarized state of debate in the U.S. (I sample media from various sources, both left and right) is in large part due to the fractured media landscape. Because you can have a ‘Republican’ cable news network (Fox News) and a ‘Democratic’ cable news network (MSNBC), because you can listen to an echo chamber on Twitter, and so on, you have more and more people buying into hyper-partisan rhetoric, getting highly distorted views of events, and so on.

Please people, start listening to the ‘other side’. Politics is supposed to be a safer way to channel our tribal psychological mechanisms. But when politics starts to descend into rhetoric that leads to attempted assassinations (such as of House Whip Steve Scalise) or mobs harassing Cabinet members, it has become a monster.

If this keeps up, the trajectory is that you’re not going to have a country anymore, rather you’re going to have a Civil War.

To those who think Trump is a monster, and that he started this trajectory, the below quote is apropos.

“Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster.” – Friedrich Nietzsche

President Infinity next release sneak-peek v. 2.8.0, Windows

This update adds a new Surrogates Screen, Florida – 2018 – Senatorial, makes updates to the Editor, adds the ability to set credits for campaign creation, allows for Vice-Leaders to be optional, fixes a bug where computer players wouldn’t withdraw or endorse in the primaries, cleans up offers, and more.

You can download it by clicking the button below for Windows.

Note: Requires you already have the game installed.

Feedback welcome!

New since previous release

  • Surrogates > can add images, similar to candidates
  • Surrogates > Main Screen > name under portrait > if name too long, shows just last name
  • Main Screen > Activities > fixed bug where could continue using surrogate after used all Surrogate Points
  • new Create Surrogate Screen
  • Editor > Regions > Issues > Profiles > ‘Set All’ button visible regardless of region
  • fixed bug in function to determine where loss of support would go to after platform change
  • Editor > Regions > Map > can right click to set abbreviation coordinates
  • Editor > Regions > if edit id, checks if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Editor > Regions > Map > fixed tab ordering
  • Editor > Regions > if change region abbreviation and then go to map, abbreviation updated
  • Editor > Leaders > if edit id, check if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Editor > Regions > Map > can show all abbreviations
  • Editor > Issues > if edit id, checks if unique, if not, adds unique identifier (ex. “_2”)
  • Select Leader Screen > if only 1 leader, Change Leader button disabled
  • Editor > can set credits, button appears on Select Campaign Screen if set
  • Editor > Basics > More > can set Elected Leader Position (ex. “Prime Minister”), Institution (ex. “Parliament”), Appointed by (ex. “Governor General”)
  • added Florida – 2018 – Senatorial campaign
  • Editor > can set whether vice-leaders enabled
  • 2016 > Trump > Strategic 2 -> 3 primaries, 4 -> 5 general election
  • Strategy Screen > Primaries > fixed bug where player other than turn player’s selected by default
  • Editor > Regions > Parties > if editing %s but have Editor > Polling > Use Polls on, text indicates using polling
  • primaries > fixed bug where computer players wouldn’t withdraw or endorse other computer players
  • Players Info Screen > fixed bug if starting in primaries and get to only 1 leader left in party
  • Offers > fixed bug where didn’t get bonus to chance accept when offered VP slot
  • Offers > fixed some bugs with making offers that didn’t make sense (ex. offer to withdraw and offer them a VP slot)
  • Offers > improved computer players chance accept for some offers
  • Editor > Regions > Issues > added ‘Set All Issues’ button, to set all issues for a region to specified center

Goals for next releases – Autumn 2018 – Preview

This is a preview intended for feedback, in particular any features you think should be top priority. We are currently finishing up the Summer 2018 cycle of releases, with a new President Infinity and Congress Infinity to be released in a few weeks – this will be the next cycle after that.

All dates are estimates. All features are goals, not promises. List subject to revision.

President Infinity – September 15th

  1. Favorability (each voter has a numeric value rating each candidate, important for modeling > 2 candidate election dynamics or systems where candidates withdraw, such as primaries or two-round runoff systems such as France’s)
  2. Candidate attributes will use a 0-10 system, instead of 1-5 (allows for more distinctions between candidates)
  3. California Governor – 2018 official campaign added
  4. Map will have pop-up information when mouse-over, so don’t have to click on it to view %s
  5. Can modify size of windows (for displays with high resolutions)
  6. High DPI support (text for the game will show properly on monitors with high DPI, instead of being fuzzy from being scaled up by the operating system)

Note that United States – 2020 is planned for Winter 2018-2019 release, after the mid-terms.

Congress Infinity – September 30th

  1. See President Infinity 1., 2., 4.-6.
  2. Updates to Senate 2018 and House 2018

Prime Minister Infinity – U.K. – October 15th

  1. See President Infinity 1., 2., 4.-6.
  2. Preferences added for Australia.

Prime Minister Infinity – Canada – October 30th (September 1st)

  1. Quebec 2018 official campaign added (will be released without game engine changes September 1st)
  2. See President Infinity 1., 2., 4.-6.
  3. Preferences added for Australia.

Feedback welcome!

Canada gets their Trump

With Doug Ford’s win for premiership of Ontario, Canada gets a Trump-like politician in a major position of leadership.

 

Just as Justin Trudeau’s election as Prime Minister echoes Barack Obama’s – Trudeau was young, charismatic, and inexperienced – Ford’s election follows a path similar to Trump’s. Trump’s path to victory was – while overall right of centre – along certain broadly populist positions, often to the left of his major opponent, and delivered with charisma. Ford focused on the economy and energy, two major focuses of Trump in the last Presidential election. Ford has a genuinely successful business background – like Trump – and even uses thumb’s up a lot, just as Trump does.

Many people speculated that Kevin O’Leary, who ran for leadership of the Conservative party in Canada (and eventually withdrew before the nomination voting), was Canada’s answer to Trump, but O’Leary wasn’t really an analog. He lacked the charisma, the genuinely successful business background (the only company O’Leary built crashed and burned soon after he sold it), and most importantly, the populist flair.

Time will tell whether Ford’s ascent to Premiership of Canada’s largest province paves the way for a federal run, but at least for the people of Ontario, they now have the Canadian equivalent of Trump. A nicer, saying ‘eh’ more often (and lacking the immigration issue, which is a federal responsibility) version of Trump.

To see the Ontario 2018 game and learn more about who was just elected, see here.

Prime Minister Infinity – Canada – Version 2.7.9

Prime Minister Infinity – Canada – v. 2.7.9 for Windows and Mac has been released!

This update includes

  • Ontario 2018 > added May 20th start date, new shifted %s for that start date
  • Platform Screen > fixed bug with issue position Power bonuses for secondary regions
  • Platform Screen > fixed bug where player issue positions (“Center-Right” and so on) would disappear
  • Ontario 2018 > Lib-NDP relations Bad -> Normal
  • Ontario 2018 > set ‘Scandals apply’ on various issues to false
  • Ontario 2018 > Schreiner > blurb “Shreiner” -> “Schreiner”
  • Ontario 2018 > Beaches-East York > removed highscore bonus if defeat PC candidate

If you are a Prime Minister Infinity – Canada owner, you are eligible for this upgrade.

This is a comprehensive update.

You can download this release by requesting a download e-mail at the link below.

To update:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/

Version information:

http://270soft.com/updates-redownloads/prime-minister-infinity-canada-version-information