First Debate Thread

The day of the first Presidential debate, and 538 is scoring the election race almost a tie.



Commentary welcome in this thread on the debate, before, during, and after it happens!

New Hampshire funds spent on advertising per percentage point

This column contains data for ad expenditures in New Hampshire so far this election cycle.

  1. Team Bush: $33.9 million ($4.5M from campaign, $29.5M from Super PAC)
  2. Team Rubio: $16.5 million ($5.2M from campaign, $11.5M from outside groups)
  3. Team Christie: $14.6 million ($462K from campaign, $14.1M from Super PAC)
  4. Team Kasich: 12.3 million ($474K from PAC, $11.8M from Super PAC)
  5. Team Sanders: $9.1 million (all from campaign)
  6. Team Clinton: $5 million (4.9M from campaign, $45K from Super PAC)
  7. Team Trump: $3.1 million (all from campaign)
  8. Team Fiorina: $1.8 million (all from Super PAC)
  9. Team Paul: $914K ($54K from campaign, $862K from Super PACs)
  10. Team Carson: $593K (all from campaign)
  11. Team Cruz: $363K ($20K from campaign, $343 from outside groups)

Jeb can finally claim first place in New Hampshire!

(Paul spent almost a million dollars on advertising in N.H., only to drop out 5 days before the primary!)

The latest Pollster averages for New Hampshire for Republicans are

  • Trump 34%
  • Cruz 12.5%
  • Kasich 11.5%
  • Rubio 10.2%
  • Bush 8.9%
  • Christie 5.7%
  • Fiorina 3.3%
  • Carson 2.9%
  • Paul 2.9%
  • Santorum 0.2%

and for Democrats they are

  • Sanders 55.6
  • Clinton 37.2%

So, on the Republican side, dollars per percentage point in New Hampshire are

  1. Bush $3.81 M
  2. Christie $2.56 M
  3. Rubio $1.62 M
  4. Kasich $1.07 M
  5. Fiorina $0.55 M
  6. Paul $0.32 M
  7. Carson $0.20 M
  8. Trump $0.09 M
  9. Cruz $0.03 M

Put another way, Trump and Cruz have effectively spent almost nothing per percentage point on ads in return for a 1st and 2nd place showing at this point there.

On the Democratic side, dollars per percentage point in New Hampshire are

  1. Sanders $0.16 M
  2. Clinton $0.13 M

The spreadsheet for this is here NH Dollars per Percentage Point. Feedback welcome if there are any errors.

Silver makes another wrong call

Nate Silver, whose claim to fame is accurately forecasting the 2012 Presidential general election outcome (50/50 states) and the 2008 outcome (49/50 states), had already made two major errors in the last year – the 2015 U.K. election, and the durability of Trump (who is first place in national polls for now over 6 months). You can now add to that a third one – the 538 forecast of the Iowa caucuses, where they predicted Trump would win.